How big is the gap between Web3 market cap and products, really?


Take the Rain project ranked 13 on CoinGecko by market cap. RAIN’s circulating market cap is currently $9.7 billion, with an FDV of $16 billion. Its market cap is higher than well-known projects like ZEC, LINK, and UNI, but almost nobody seems to have heard of this project, right?
I did a quick, light investigation. In simple terms, Rain is a prediction market built on Arbitrum. Its main app is called Rain Trade. In addition, it hands the trading engine over to a third party to build other applications—most of what it does is still its own prediction market.
But who has heard of it, and who cares? I opened the website and saw that the market with the most trades has a historical trade volume of 200k. Then I opened the data site: after it was popular for two days the other day, its current daily trading volume is almost 0, and the daily earnings are probably a few bucks.
With a product that you could say nobody uses, the RAIN token still has no real utility—yet if it keeps going up, it’ll be in the industry’s top 10.
The most critical issue is: at this point, with things like this, nobody brings it up, and nobody dares to short it. The exchange with the best liquidity for RAIN is actually BitMart, which shut down just a couple of days ago......
RAIN-1.60%
ZEC-0.53%
UNI-1.00%
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