#夏日创作营 Where are the future opportunities in the crypto market? The short-term trend still carries risks!

Over the next one or two weeks, BTC will most likely remain in a range-bound, choppy pattern. After that, there’s still a risk of another round of declines. The reason is actually very simple: the surge toward the end of June looked impressive, but there was no meaningful incremental capital entering the market. In other words, it wasn’t because more people were buying and demand was strong—it's just that sell orders in the market became fewer, so price managed to climb a bit. That doesn’t count as a solid, sustained uptrend. Previously, the market could withstand pressure mainly because everyone was optimistic that the US crypto regulatory framework/clarity bill would be successfully passed. Relying on that upside expectation, it offset the market’s downside pressure.
But now the key question has arrived: that upside expectation has already failed. When the market corrects next, the downside pressure will fully show up.
Looking at the broader trend, during this July rebound, Bitcoin still couldn’t break through the key weekly-level resistance zone. Last week it briefly pushed above that level, but quickly fell back and couldn’t hold. At the same time, the nominal yields and real yields on US 2-year and 10-year Treasuries, as well as the US dollar index, have all been rising in sync. This means market borrowing costs are higher and liquidity is tighter. When liquidity is tight, risk assets like stocks and crypto are usually suppressed. Under normal circumstances, the crypto market alone could never carry out a sustained upward trend. The reason it didn’t crash earlier is simply that expectations for the clarity bill helped “hard hedge” the negative effect of deteriorating liquidity conditions. But the situation has changed completely now. The clarity bill that was propping up crypto prices has, in the short term, basically no chance of passing. The earlier positive expectations have completely fallen flat, and the current environment—tight USD liquidity and generally lower market risk appetite—has not shown any substantive improvement. Whether from liquidity conditions or Bitcoin’s own price action, this rebound is no longer sustainable.
Taking it all together, over the next one or two weeks Bitcoin’s overall outlook is still likely to be a range-bound market, with a second dip more likely. Right now, the risk-reward and probability of success for shorting are both better. In terms of execution, you can set the stop-loss at the prior swing high. Also, there will be many key events ahead that can influence the market. Each node could change the direction of both up and down moves: the Fed’s rate decision meeting early on July 30, end-of-month earnings reports from major tech companies, the US-Iran talks with an uncertain timeline for implementation, the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data on August 7, and the US CPI inflation data on August 12. These data will affect global capital flows. They’re interconnected, but their impact on the market differs. At each crucial time point, it could become the key trigger for a market turning point and for confirming whether prices will rise or fall. If next week’s Fed decision and major tech company earnings meet market expectations, then including BTC, risk assets will most likely stop falling and see a modest rebound and repair. For the crypto market specifically, the August 7 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data are the top priority—they’re the core key window that determines the short-term direction of the market. $BTC ‌