Nomura: Changxin surged 471% at its open on the first day; the target price of 116 yuan implies a 12x upside.

Deep Tide TechFlow news, according to Tide research. Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market on July 27, and surged 471% at the open; its market cap briefly exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan. On the same day, Nomura Securities issued its inaugural coverage report, giving a Buy rating and a target price of 116 yuan. This implies a 20x P/E based on 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan, and using an issue price of 8.66 yuan suggests an implied upside of more than 12 times. Nomura noted that AI is driving a structural surge in DRAM demand; from 2026 to 2030, the compound annual growth rate of AI memory demand will exceed 60%, while global supply growth is only 30% to 40%, meaning the supply-demand gap will keep widening.

As the world’s fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, Changxin currently has a global share of about 10%, and is expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron’s scale. In Q1 2026, revenue was 50.8 billion yuan (year-on-year +719%); net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.76 billion yuan (year-on-year +1,688%). Its quarterly profit has already surpassed the full-year 2025 figure. Nomura believes Changxin should enjoy a “China premium.” The 20x P/E valuation is based on Micron’s 10x historical average and the midpoint of the valuation spread of 1 to 3 times between China- and US-semiconductor equipment stocks. On the same day, Northeast Securities provided an estimated valuation range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan; Nomura’s 7.76 trillion yuan view is relatively optimistic. The core difference lies in the long-term ceiling for Changxin’s future market share.