July 27 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨Geopolitical Tensions Ease ➕ with the Fed Interest Rate Decision Approaching—Focus on These Key Resistance Levels

“Jiang Feng Trading Diary” Episode 14: Candlesticks and indicators are just the result of price, not the cause of price!

Weekend recap: Bitcoin’s price rebounded from 63,760, reaching around 65,555 today. The main reasons: geopolitical tensions easing drove a strong price rebound. Of course, our weekend strategy at the current price: Ethereum short orders at 1,888～1,967 and Bitcoin short orders at 64,600～65,700 are still holding. There’s nothing to deny here—the shorts are being held. Some friends who may not be able to hold may have already stopped out and exited. Let’s see if we can pull one back today!

First, here’s today’s viewpoint summary: the high-short idea remains unchanged! Light position gambling at key time nodes, with steady observation as the main approach!
Risk index: 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆

Factors affecting price走势
⚠️: Geopolitical situation easing, pushing prices higher
⚠️: Fed FOMC interest rate decision: meeting dovish/hawkish tone affects price走势
⚠️: July rate-hike probability drops to 31.5%, with rate probability maintained: 68.5%
⚠️: September 25 bps rate-hike probability 52.8%, 50 bps rate-hike probability 19.7%

Comprehensive suggestions:

📌 Ethereum: head-position short around 1,967, add shorts at 1,990～2,055
🏁 Targets 1,900～1,840～1,810
🏁 Targets 1,780～1,730
🏁 1,680～1,550

📌 Bitcoin: head-position short around 65,700, add shorts at 66,300～67,000～68,000
🏁 Target around 64,700
🏁 Target 64,000～62,800
🏁 Target 62,000～61,300
🏁 Target 60,000～59,000

From the order book, Ethereum’s trend has been stronger than Bitcoin recently. It has already broken the previous high. But pay attention: current short-term resistance around 1,967, and the key resistance around 1,990～2,050. The重点 to focus on is the news briefing after the interest rate decision in the early hours of the 30th. Any hawkish remarks will cause the price to continue moving toward the bears. In the past few days, the geopolitical situation easing has pushed prices upward—but that impact is only temporary.

Personally, I think the earlier positives have basically fallen through. The U.S. CLARITY Act: the Senate plans to push for a vote before the August recess, but Kalshi’s prediction for approval before August 1 is only 0.6%,

But inflation pressure still remains. In July, it will most likely keep interest rates unchanged. If the meeting includes hawkish remarks as mentioned by Waugh, then the September rate-hike probability will rise significantly!
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