$CXMT Keep your eyes open and read it clearly—China is proud. Changxin Technology, China is proud too. Its market value exceeds Moutai. This is the real technology-company short seller. The whole world has to look at China’s face. And we also have our own giant technology titans!

I. Industry scarcity: the only domestic full-process IDM DRAM manufacturer, breaking the monopoly of the three overseas giants (core valuation foundation)

1. Global market monopoly: Over the past 20 years, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron monopolized more than 90% of global DRAM capacity, controlling pricing, advanced process technology, and the high-end storage segment. In China, annual imports of memory chips exceed 1.88B yuan, making it a typical “bottlenecked” core component.

2. Exclusive domestic qualification: Changxin is the only enterprise in mainland China that has achieved end-to-end DRAM capability—DRAM design, 12-inch wafer manufacturing, and integrated assembly/testing for large-scale mass production. In late 2019, it rolled off China’s first self-developed DDR4 chip, completing the breakthrough from 0 to 1 in the DRAM industry. Its global market share is 7.67%, ranking it solidly fourth worldwide. It is a strategic core carrier for the country’s integrated circuit industry, and it has unique policy and industrial scarcity premium.

3. The “ceiling” for the track is extremely high: DRAM is a must-have chip for smartphones, PCs, AI servers, and new-energy vehicles. The DRAM consumption of a single AI server is 3–5 times that of a traditional server. With AI compute demand unlocking long-term growth in the industry, the market space is on the order of trillions.

II. A super bullish industry cycle plus a supply gap—earnings explosion drives a “double-up” (valuation core support)

1. Overseas manufacturers reduce general DRAM capacity: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron shift concentrated capacity toward higher-profit HBM memory. Supply of ordinary DDR5/LPDDR5 shrinks significantly. Combined with the explosive growth of AI compute demand, storage becomes urgently needed. Starting September 2025, DDR5 prices rise by more than 300%, and the industry enters a super upward cycle.

2. A cliff-like reversal in the profit curve

- Market trough: continuous large losses in 2023–2024; first full-year profit of 24.76B yuan in 2025;
- Boom in industry conditions: in 2026, quarterly revenue reaches 50.8 billion yuan and net profit 30k yuan; the company pre-profits 50–57 billion yuan in the first half, up more than 22 times year over year. Gross margin peaks at 79%. Its profitability is comparable to Kweichow Moutai. Institutions assign a 25–30x P/E ratio, implying a reasonable market value range of 2–3 trillion yuan.

3. Perfect capacity matching to the cycle: capacity from three 12-inch wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing is concentrated and released. Capacity utilization is 95.73%. It fully captures the benefits of price increases. Scale effects continue to drive down manufacturing costs.