It’s hindsight time—let’s look at 2 sets of data:

1. Who priced Changxin Technology most accurately?
2. Is Changxin’s pricing actually expensive?

Regarding the first question, the neutral range disclosed earlier by brokers was 30 to 45 yuan. In the investment community, some unofficial opinions believed the strongest level that wouldn’t break was a 400% move (43.3 yuan). Both sets are below the actual opening at 49.5 yuan.

The Hyperliquid on-chain quote on July 16 was $7.37, which converts to 49.9 yuan at the exchange rate. 11 days later, the A-share opening was at 49.5 yuan, a difference of 0.8%.

The on-chain peak of $8.64 converts to 58.5 yuan, which is 18% higher than the opening. The direction was right, but the price call was too high.

About the second question, Changxin’s current total market cap is 3.2 trillion yuan, equivalent to $473 billion, already 46% of Micron $MU .

But on the first day, only 32k shares can be freely traded—$31.8 billion—just 3.1% of Micron. Micron is basically fully tradable.

That means the 3.2 trillion yuan market cap is propped up by a float of $31.8 billion that gets “priced” through a turnover of 90 billion yuan.

If we simply annualize the net profit guidance for the first half of the year, the current price implies a PE of about 30x. Micron’s forward PE is 6.77x, and it has already fallen 27% from its 52-week high. The SSE STAR 50 dropped 17% in July.

Low float means it can rise fast and fall fast too; a 30x PE may already have priced in expectations for the cycle to continue moving upward.