Oil prices plunged 7% overnight, and BTC reclaimed 65,000: the market is always sprinting ahead

After 13 straight days of continuous airstrikes by the US military on Iran, it suddenly stopped.

Then, within just a few minutes of the global oil market opening, it directly crashed by more than 7%, briefly dropping below $90. Brent crude surged from above $100 last week to around $91 in one go.

7%, in a few minutes—gone.

Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures opened up 1.4%, Bitcoin reclaimed above $65,000, gold rose nearly 1%, and silver jumped more than 2%.

Last week, the market was still trading the script of “oil breaks $100, inflation is out of control, the Fed hikes rates.” Brent crude rose more than 25% over the month. Everyone was shouting: “High oil prices are coming, interest rates will rise, and risk assets will be dead.”

Then the US military stopped—for two days.

Then oil prices collapsed by 7%.

Then risk assets all came back.

Is that 75% probability of a ceasefire being priced by the market for the future—or are they betting with their lives?

The market is pricing a “ceasefire agreement by end of August” at a surge to 75%. It’s almost saying, “This is basically settled.”

But take a closer look—Iran says “skepticism outweighs optimism,” believing the US pause is only a tactical adjustment. Yemen’s Houthi forces are still attacking Saudi oil tankers. Merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day are fewer than 10.

A ceasefire? It’s still not even written into the calendar.

But the market has already run ahead.

We’re all too familiar with this script.

Isn’t this “the news hasn’t landed yet, but prices have already launched”? Isn’t this “after expectations are fully priced in, good news runs out and turns into bad news”?

When oil broke $100 last week, everyone panic-sold BTC. This week, after oil fell by just 7%, BTC returned to above 65,000.

The market’s pricing is never reality—it’s people’s imagination of reality.

And imagination moves faster than turning pages.

Last week it was trading “the inflation apocalypse”; this week it started trading “the peace dividend.” Same Middle East, same Iran, same batch of traders—within seven days, the script was rewritten twice.

When you’re debating whether to chase the price up, think about this morning’s oil price—

7%, in a few minutes.

Can your position handle multiple waves like this?

Don’t let the news lead you by the nose. The ceasefire agreement hasn’t been signed yet, Hormuz is still blocked, and Iran is still doubtful. The market running ahead doesn’t mean the finish line is really close.

Let the bullets fly for a bit.

Cash is dignity, patience is a weapon. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $BZ $CL