ETH rose steadily from 1500 to 2055, then pulled back. Over the weekend, it stabilized around 1945 and rebounded. The US and Iran paused military actions, and Ethereum jumped more than 3%. But 2055 is a prior high-density trapped-chips pressure zone; the Ethereum spot ETF saw net outflows of $161 million this week, and the Fed’s rate-hike probability is 36.3%—so bulls and bears are stuck here. No side-picking—wait for direction. Whoever wins, you follow.

Key resistance above: 2000-2055, prior highs on the weekly timeframe. A breakout and hold means the bulls continue, targeting 2100-2150.

Key support below: 1900-1920, the MA55 and MA120 double moving-average support band + the downside edge of the recent consolidation base. A breakdown means the bears take over, targeting 1850-1800.

Reasons to go long:
① After 13 consecutive days of clashes between the US and Iran, Trump paused military strikes on Iran, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes also paused—geopolitical risk premium quickly dissipated
② Ethereum spot ETF cumulative net inflows in July totaled $338 million; the monthly trend remains positive; BlackRock’s ETHA led with single-day net inflows of $41.92 million
③ On the 1-hour chart, it stabilized around 1900 and then bounced back; the lows are gradually trending higher—an early short-term uptrend structure has started to form

Reasons to go short:
① Ethereum spot ETF saw net outflows of $161 million this week, with net outflows for 4 straight weeks; the BTC ETF’s 7-day inflow trend has ended—institutions take profits and exit in the short term
② The Fed’s July rate-hike probability is 36.3%, and September’s is 55.2%; the 10-year US Treasury yield remains elevated, suppressing the valuation of risk assets
③ 2055 is a prior high-density trapped-chips pressure zone; with only a single bullish catalyst, it’s difficult to break through and hold effectively at once

Breakout long: If there is increased volume and it holds above 2000-2055, chase long. Stop loss below 1950. Targets 2100-2150.
Breakdown short: If it effectively breaks below 1900-1920, short on the breakdown. Stop loss above 1950. Targets 1850-1800.
Middle zone: Don’t move between 1920-2000—wait for direction confirmation before acting.

A ceasefire is a positive; rate hikes are a hanging sword. With the ETF in the middle of a fight—tugged by three forces—let the candlestick tell you who wins. $ETH ‌