After BTC was pushed up from 61,800 all the way to 67,150 and then pulled back, the market has been repeatedly grinding around 65,000 over the weekend. After the US and Iran have been trading fire for 13 consecutive days, Trump ordered a pause in airstrikes—oil prices plunged by more than 5% on the news, and risk assets rebounded across the board. Spot BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 straight days, and yesterday alone had a single-day inflow of $220 million. But the Fed’s Wednesday interest-rate decision has suspense cranked up to the max—104 economists are all betting on staying put, while interest-rate futures are pricing in a 36% chance of a rate hike. Both bulls and bears are waiting: whoever breaks first gets the meat.

Keep an eye on these two levels

Key resistance above: 65,500-66,000. A breakout and hold = the bulls continue, with targets at 67,150-68,000

Key support below: 64,500-64,700. The 4-hour MA55 support zone—if it breaks, the bears take over, targeting 64,000-63,500

Reasons to go long:
① Trump pauses airstrikes against Iran, opening a window for US-Iran diplomatic talks, and the geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwinds
② BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 straight days; yesterday’s net inflow was $220 million. Institutional funds keep accumulating at low levels
③ Brent crude oil crashes more than 5% from above $100 to $86. Inflation pressure drops sharply, and rate-hike expectations may cool

Reasons to go short:
① The “ceasefire” between the US and Iran is fragile—Iran says it will respond to attacks with attacks, and Trump said the level of strikes can be increased at any time
② Interest-rate futures are pricing in a 36% probability of a rate hike; the split between 104 economists and traders has reached “the biggest divergence in some time”
③ The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.69%, a new high since January 2025. A high-rate environment suppresses risk assets

Go long on a breakout: Buy more on strong volume and hold above 65,500-66,000; stop loss below 64,800; targets 67,150-68,000.
Go short on a breakdown: If it effectively breaks 64,500-64,700, chase the short; stop loss above 65,200; targets 64,000-63,500.
In the middle zone: Do nothing between 64,500-65,500—wait for directional confirmation before acting.

Oil is collapsing, ETFs are buying, and rate hikes are hanging overhead—under the tug-of-war of three forces, let the candlesticks tell you who wins. $BTC