“Oil prices collapsed, and BTC returned to 65k: Thursday’s FOMC might just be a ‘read and ignored’”

Brothers and sisters, here’s an upside-down kind of thing.

Early Thursday morning, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. Everyone is guessing—will they raise rates? Hawkish or dovish?

But you might not have noticed: before the meeting even started, the market already “cast its vote” first.

First, let’s talk about oil prices.

Last week, Brent crude briefly broke above $100 per barrel. The market freaked out—“We’re about to see a second wave of inflation! The Fed will keep hiking rates until it kills them!”

So what happened? The U.S. and Iran paused attacks over the weekend, and ceasefire expectations warmed up. Oil prices dropped straight out of the gate on Monday—down 5% at the open; Brent slid to around $92, and WTI fell below $85.

The biggest bomb in inflation expectations was defused by itself before the FOMC meeting.

Now, let’s talk about employment.

The initial jobless claims number released last week was 187k.

What does that mean? The lowest record since 1969.

Economists’ median forecast was 210k. The actual figure was 23k lower than expected.

Put it into human language: companies don’t lay off. The economy isn’t in recession. The Fed doesn’t need to cut rates early to save the day.

Now taste this combination:

Oil prices fall → inflation expectations cool → pressure on U.S. Treasury yields eases

Job market stays strong → the economy doesn’t “land” → the Fed doesn’t need emergency easing

What the market fears most has never been “not cutting rates,” but “being forced to hike.”

Now oil prices collapsed on their own, and the inflation bomb got defused on its own—how much urgency is left for rate hikes?

Where is Bitcoin now?

Around $65k.

The Fear and Greed Index has rebounded from the early-month low to around 30. Even though it’s still in the “fear” range, it’s already a relative high for this month.

The options market is even more direct—large call options are betting that after the FOMC, BTC will move toward $72,000.

Smart money has already priced in the factor of “oil prices falling.”

So, is the Thursday FOMC really important?

It is. But what matters isn’t whether they “raise rates”—all 76 economists expect rates to be kept unchanged.

What matters is the “expectations gap.”

CME data shows the market thinks the probability of a rate hike in July is 36.3%, and in September is 55.2%. But the chief economist at Renaissance Macro, Dutta, went straight out and said, “Why not hike now?”

If Waller’s wording is more hawkish—saying “inflation risks are still moving up”—the market would reprice again.

If Waller admits inflation is slowing and oil prices have pulled back—then $65k becomes the new floor.

Finally, one honest line:

Most people focus on the volatility on the day of the FOMC.

But the real game is “before the meeting.”

Oil prices have already fallen, the employment data has already come out, and BTC is already back at 65k.

Don’t wait to chase after the FOMC lands.

The meeting day is actually when good news is cashed out or bad news runs out.

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