Zhengxin Technology’s IPO surges 471%, becoming the A-share market cap king! Nomura calls for a target price of 116 yuan, while a whale places a $17.26 million short bet against it

China DRAM leader CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) officially listed on the STAR Market on July 27, surging 471.59% at the open to 49.5 yuan, jumping to become the highest market-cap stock in A-shares. On the same day, Nomura Securities initiated coverage with a target price of 116 yuan, while on-chain whales placed a $17.26 million short-sell bet on Hyperliquid.
(Background recap: China’s second-largest IPO ever! CXMT raised $9.8 billion, with retail investors going wild and subscribing 212x over)
(Additional background: China’s two memory giants are jointly investing $63 billion to expand capacity; CXMT relies on “backyard steelmaking” to violently boost DDR5 production capacity)

Table of contents

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• Nomura’s first coverage calls for a target price of 116 yuan
• The prediction market bets on a market cap breaking 2 trillion
• On-chain whales open a $17.26 million short-sell bet
• With extreme volatility, the liquidation amount ranks first across the entire network

Today, memory giant CXMT (688825) officially began trading on the STAR Market. In the call auction phase, it was already quoted at 49.5 yuan, up 471.59% from the issue price of 8.66 yuan. Its market cap surged past 3 trillion yuan RMB in one move, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the A-share stock with the largest market cap.

Nomura’s first coverage calls for a target price of 116 yuan

Nomura Securities started its first coverage on the same day CXMT listed, giving a “Buy” rating and a 116-yuan target price, based on expected earnings per share (EPS) of 5.8 yuan in 2028 and a 20x price-to-earnings (P/E) calculation. This valuation is twice Micron’s, implying there is room for a 13.4x jump from the IPO price, corresponding to a market cap of about 7.76 trillion yuan RMB.

In addition, Northeast Securities cross-validated the valuation range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan RMB using three methods: anchoring to market share, splitting P/E based on earnings, and unit capacity. The firm pointed out that CXMT’s share of profit and loss attributable to non-controlling interests in 2025 is as high as 73.76%, far higher than Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron (all under 1%), so the valuation must exclude the impact of that portion.

The prediction market bets on a market cap breaking 2 trillion

According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability that CXMT’s closing market cap on its first trading day will break 1 trillion yuan RMB is 100%. The probabilities of breaking 1.5 trillion, 2 trillion, and 2.5 trillion are 96%, 84%, and 62%, respectively; the probabilities of challenging 3 trillion and 3.5 trillion are 42% and 27%. Based on the 8.66 yuan issue price, the IPO corresponds to a market cap of about 579.18 billion yuan RMB (about $85.4B), making it the second-largest IPO in China’s history.

On-chain whales open a $17.26 million short-sell bet

Just as the spot market heated up, Hyperliquid’s pre-market contract market for CXMT also staged a major long-versus-short battle. On X, the on-chain monitoring account EmberCN disclosed that the largest position address has continued adding to its short position; its current position is already $17.26 million. The average short opening price is $6.4 (about 43 yuan RMB), and liquidation orders have been placed in the $2 to $4.5 range (about 13 to 30 yuan RMB). As the spot opened and surged, the contract price briefly broke above $7, then quickly fell back to around $6.5, with extremely violent volatility.

With extreme volatility, the liquidation amount ranks first across the entire network

According to Coinglass data, in the past 1 hour, the liquidation amount for CXMT-related contracts reached $2.36 million, ranking first across the entire network. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.14% and the Shenzhen Component fell 0.04% on the same day; CXMT’s astonishing surge contrasts sharply with the overall broader market.