In this morning’s early session, the gold market staged a dramatic “pulling up a plant from dry land” moment. Spot gold prices surged strongly, breaking through the $4,100 per ounce level, and domestic gold prices in China have also been racing higher, nearing 900 yuan per gram. This sudden rally is actually the result of a convergence between short-term news catalysts and long-term fundamentals.

The most direct trigger is the dramatic easing of the Middle East situation. The United States suddenly announced it would pause military strikes against Iran, and Iran also signaled a pause in retaliatory actions. After more than ten days of high-intensity standoff, the “pause button” has finally been pressed. The market’s biggest worry—the threat of a shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—has been temporarily lifted, and international oil prices plunged sharply, with intraday declines once exceeding 5%.
The sharp drop in oil prices directly reversed market inflation expectations. Previously, with oil prices surging, everyone worried that inflation couldn’t be contained, which would force the Federal Reserve to raise rates—an outright negative for gold. Now that oil prices fall, inflation pressure eases, and the urgency for the Fed to hike rates also diminishes, weakening the factors that had been suppressing gold. On top of that, with the dollar also weakening, earlier short-sellers rushed to cover, and gold followed through to break above key levels.
Beyond the short-term positives, gold also has a solid underpinning: persistent “buying, buying, buying” by global central banks. In the first quarter of 2026, the net global central bank gold purchases hit a record high for the same period. China’s central bank, in particular, has added to its gold holdings for 20 consecutive months—adding nearly 15 tons in June alone. This long-term bid provides strong bottom support for gold prices around the $4,000 level.
Still, don’t get too carried away—this week’s real heavy hitter is still ahead. Early Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. Although markets expect rates to be held steady, the Fed chair’s remarks are crucial—will he signal a September rate hike? That is the key to determining gold’s medium-term direction.
Overall, for now in the gold market, geopolitical easing gives the bulls some breathing room, but the policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve still hangs overhead. For ordinary investors, the risk of chasing the rally is relatively high right now; it may be better to wait patiently until the Wednesday decision lands before making plans. After all, in this market, living longer matters more than making quick profits. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes $XAUT