7.27 BTC$BTC trading plan

Trade lightly around 64,300–64,800 to defend 63,800; target 66,000–66,500. Look for opportunities to trade lightly around 66,000–66,500, defend 66,800, target 65,000. Whether opening both long and short, or only one direction, the key is still timing and position control. Before this week’s major events land, don’t go heavy betting on direction.

Yesterday, BTC rebounded quickly from the 63,666 low, and has regained 65,000. The current price is under pressure around 65,780 and has moved into a consolidation and repair phase. On the 1H timeframe, the short moving averages are still pointing upward, and 65,000 has become the near-term pivot between bulls and bears.

But to be honest, the quality of this rebound still needs a question mark. Although MACD has turned green with a low-level golden cross, on the 4H timeframe the DIF dual lines are still running below the zero axis, indicating this is only a phase correction within the broader down move, and the large-scale bearish structure hasn’t been broken. RSI6 has already been pushed above 80 into the overbought zone, and the momentum for continued short-term upside is limited; the risk of a rise then pullback isn’t small.

On the macro side, this week is the real heavyweight. On Wednesday, the FOMC rate decision: the market’s probability of keeping rates unchanged is about 64%, while the probability of a rate hike remains 36%. On Thursday, there is also core PCE data, which is the key reference for shaping the Fed’s policy path. Plus, oil prices have continued to stay elevated, and inflation pressure hasn’t really eased. Overall, risk assets are still under pressure.

Overall, you can participate in the short-term rebound, but don’t get carried away chasing. After all, before this week’s dense macro catalysts land, funds will likely remain cautious.

After 9 years in trading through multiple cycles of bull and bear markets, I’ve always believed that trading isn’t about gambling on luck—it’s about using a system to catch opportunities. A true pro isn’t the one who brags when the wind is at their back, but the one who still holds to their judgment in headwinds#CLARITY法案进入最后关键阶段