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China Merchants Securities: There is currently no system-wide systemic risk across the market, and the bottom layout window has been gradually opening.

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On July 20, Zhang Jingjing, Macro Chief Analyst at China Merchants Securities, and Li Haoyang, Co-Chief of Strategy, said in an interview with reporters that the recent adjustment in the A-share market is not due to a systemic deterioration in domestic fundamentals, but rather market volatility triggered by multiple overlapping factors at home and abroad. The adjustment is characterized by structural deleveraging after excessive crowding along the technology mainline. There is no systemic risk across the entire market. Going forward, the market will mainly see differentiated bottom-building and a volatile recovery, and the current window for positioning at market bottoms has been gradually opening. China Merchants Securities believes that, in terms of macro liquidity, global liquidity is currently tightening at the margin. Since the conflict between Iran and the U.S., the international crude oil price baseline has shifted significantly higher. The AI industry boom has also driven up the prices of related raw materials and equipment. The two factors together have lifted the global inflation baseline, and since May more than 10 central banks, including those in Europe and Japan, have raised interest rates. At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve has not only ended the rate-cut cycle but may even raise rates within the year. (China Securities Journal)
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