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Good morning, everyone! Market analysis! Thanks for everyone’s support!
The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this Wednesday, and the market expects the probability of a rate hike to be about one-third. Goldman Sachs analysts said investors believe the outcome of the July meeting is uncertain, largely due to disagreement within the Fed, the unclear stance of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and an escalation in the Iran situation. After June inflation data came in soft, most voting members appear unlikely to push for a rate hike this week, and at least one member may raise an objection in favor of a rate hike during the meeting.
AI interpretation: Disagreements within the Fed over the rate-hike path are increasing uncertainty in policy expectations. The cooling in inflation data has weakened the need for aggressive tightening in the near term. Most decision-makers prefer to maintain the status quo to see how the economy responds. This cautious stance directly suppresses the market’s bets on a rate hike this week. Policymakers are in a critical window for balancing inflation control with pressure on economic growth.