CITIC Construction Investment: In the short term, the market will maintain a W-shaped bottom oscillation, and AI will still be the main long-term theme

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CITIC Construction Investment Research said that margin financing and securities lending funds quickly withdrew in July. Supported by regulation, short-term market liquidity has stabilized somewhat, and there is still backing for incremental capital within the exchange. Externally, the Middle East situation has driven up oil prices, US Treasury yields have risen, and renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have reignited disruptions, putting global risk appetite under pressure. The medium- to long-term logic for the AI industry remains solid. Kimi K3 has reshaped the “performance/cost” narrative, expanding workflow coverage and accelerating penetration into vertical sectors. Against the headwinds, Google has increased capital expenditure, validating the pattern of a mismatch between compute supply and demand. In the short term, the market maintains a W-shaped bottom consolidation. AI remains the long-term main theme. In the near term, it is advisable to wait for external uncertainties to be resolved, while also advancing structural rebalancing, and balancing low-position areas that have both fundamental support and valuation-repair upside. Industry focus areas include: AI (upstream materials and equipment, domestically produced compute power, etc.), the midstream manufacturing export chain (new energy, machinery, ships, etc.), and upstream resources and “dividend/bonus” defensive strategies.
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