Last week’s review, and this week’s super rate decision reversal is imminent

Reviewing last week’s market action, BTC and ETH both traded in a high-level box range throughout, with highly correlated price movement, but ETH remained overall weaker. Bitcoin repeatedly tested the resistance above 65,500 and retreated on reduced volume; the 62,500 support level was repeatedly held. Spot ETF flows saw stage-by-stage outflows, and combined with rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical risk aversion weighing on sentiment, rebounds lacked follow-through. This is a typical high-level washout range trading environment. For Ethereum, the 1,950 resistance above was tightly capped; after pokes higher, it kept pulling back on the hourly chart. Capital was concentrated more toward BTC, and the long-delayed catch-up rally for ETH has not materialized. The trading range has narrowed, leaving limited room for bulls vs. bears to fight.

This week is the key reversal week that will determine the short-term trend, with the main focus on the Fed’s rate decision meeting on 7/28–7/29.
1) If Powell’s remarks are hawkish, rate-cut expectations will be pushed back, and the market will probe lower key supports;
2) If it signals easing, risk assets will see a rebound and repair, and ETH may have a chance to move into its catch-up phase.

In terms of trading, tighten position sizing ahead of the meeting, mainly trade range-based swings, don’t chase or cut aggressively, and wait for the decision to land with a valid breakout before following the move. The longer-term “Gold Nine and Silver Ten” build-up logic remains unchanged. August’s consolidation is just bottom washout, and the long-term uptrend has not been broken. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes $BTC $ETH