Many retail traders are misled by SOL’s short-term small bullish candles into bottom-fishing, ignoring the core bearish signal that the price has been operating below all moving averages for the long term. This modest upward move in the current round is only a technical rebound after oversold conditions, with rebound momentum continuing to fade; there has been no breakout above key resistance with a high-volume K-line.

On the capital side, spot ETF inflows are continuing to slow down, derivatives positioning shows net short exposure, and on top of that, funds in the public chain sector are being diverted to the “second pancake,” while fundamentals continue to weaken. Once the price pulls back to the moving-average pressure zone, a wave of concentrated selling is likely. Selling short with the trend is the move that best fits the market direction; going long against the trend carries an extremely high risk of losses.

Trading advice: aggressively, short directly at the current price; more conservatively, short in the 76-76.4 area, targeting 74.8-74.2. If it breaks below 73.5.
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