CFTC Tightens Oversight of Prediction Markets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has introduced stricter standards for prediction market event contracts, signalling increased regulatory scrutiny of the fast-growing sector.

Key points:

• The CFTC warned platforms against relying on generic "template style" self certifications for event contracts.
• Platforms including Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket and Crypto . com were highlighted in the agency's latest guidance.
• Every event contract must now include its own settlement methodology, data sources, contract terms and legal compliance analysis.
• Only closely related contracts may be grouped together under a single filing.
• The regulator said simplified bulk submissions limit its ability to assess whether contracts comply with core U.S. regulatory requirements.
The updated guidance raises the compliance bar for prediction markets as regulators move toward more detailed oversight of event based financial products.
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