Many people have been wondering recently why the large coin’s small bounce can’t be used to take on a bigger long. Today, I’ll fully break down the moving average structure to help everyone clearly understand the logic. The large coin previously effectively broke below all cycle moving averages. The moving average system has completed a trend reversal—from support to a pressure band that suppresses the market throughout. There is no foundation for sustained strength.

The current price is oscillating upward and repairing, but this is only a short-term sentiment repair, with no incremental capital entering to push it higher. Price is slowly forcing its way toward the overhead moving average pressure zone, but the rebound strength is extremely weak.

In my view, the overall market environment is still a bearish big-picture setup. The medium-term downtrend channel has not been broken. Each time the price pulls back to the moving average pressure level, it will bring a large volume of sell orders and concentrated dumping. The market then falls back in line with the trend—this is a typical pullback confirming a resistance pattern.

For swing trading, you must clearly distinguish between short-term bounces and trend reversals. At this stage, all bounces that approach moving average resistance are excellent opportunities to set up for going short. Only by trading in line with the trend can you avoid the risk of getting deeply trapped.

Trading recommendations: for aggressive traders, short directly at the current price; for conservative traders, short around 65000-65600. Looking down to 64000-63400. If it breaks below 62800, 62000.
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