2026.7.26 Daily Crypto Circle News Analysis

2026.7.26 Daily Crypto Circle News Analysis 22:03 Macroeconomics and market main-line conclusion first. On the weekend, there was no new positive catalyst significant enough to reverse the market. The truly important point is that “the Fed meeting is approaching, institutional funds continue to withdraw, and stablecoin net issuance is insufficient” are still happening at the same time. Holding BTC near $640,000 can only说明 sell pressure is temporarily controllable; it cannot prove that risk appetite has returned. Until macro confirmation and fresh inflow arrive, the main market line remains defense, not a full-on chase of altcoin rebound. The official Fed schedule shows that the FOMC meeting will be held on July 28~29. The June minutes already listed the Middle East situation, oil prices, and inflation compensation as key variables affecting asset prices, while the policy rate at that time remained unchanged. My view is that going forward, the market cares more about how decision-makers assess the energy shock and inflation, rather than only whether they adjust interest rates. If the wording remains tight, the valuation ceiling for crypto will be pressured; only if oil prices fall and the policy language doesn’t further upgrade, can high-volatility assets get breathing room. Weekend price stability doesn’t mean macro risks have disappeared.
On the capital side and BTC/ETH-related news, Farside’s final data shows that on July 24, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $240.1 million, with total outflows of $465.2 million over two consecutive days. On the same day, ETH ETFs had net outflows of $70.70 million. The day’s BTC outflows mainly came from two top-tier products. ETH also flipped from net inflow the previous day to net outflow, indicating that institutional funds didn’t rotate from BTC to ETH; instead, they were reducing risk exposure at the same time. This shift has already occurred, and in the short term you can’t overturn it by relying on a single rebound candlestick.
For members’ handling: treat the ETF flows of the next trading day as the top confirmation. If BTC and ETH products simultaneously restore net inflows and withdrawals keep reversing, then the continued withdrawal more resembles a phase of taking profits. If outflows continue, then even if BTC trades sideways, it means spot absorption is thinning, making it harder for altcoins to obtain sustained capital. Current price is around BTC $644,000 and ETH $1,880; positioning and leverage shouldn’t be based on the assumption that “there will surely be capital replenishment on Monday.”
Regulation, stablecoins, and industry news have not provided any new incremental signals. DeFiLlama shows stablecoins’ total market value is about $310.4 billion; over seven days, it increased by only about $230 million, a growth rate of 0.07%. Over thirty days, it actually declined by 1.1%. This means on-exchange USD liquidity is broadly flat, and it can’t offset ETF withdrawals for now. The US payment stablecoin rules continue to put qualified issuers, customer identification, reserves, and redemption capability at the core. Medium-term benefits apply to compliant leading issuers, but it isn’t a catalyst for a broad “rising together” rally across all stablecoins and DeFi assets.
In the industry and security category, no new incident has been found that has been jointly confirmed by project announcements, reliable security organizations, and on-chain evidence—an incident that would change the market’s overall judgment. Community rumors can only serve as leads; content that hasn’t returned to official announcements or on-chain evidence shouldn’t be used as a basis to chase or panic-sell.
What’s more worth doing at this stage is checking tail risks in custody, approvals, and high-yield protocols. Market read: BTC’s $635,000~$640,000 remains the short-term defensive line. Only when it reclaims $650,000~$660,000 and is accompanied by ETF inflow returning can it be considered that absorption has recovered. If it breaks below $635,000, you need to guard against thin liquidity amplifying deleveraging.
ETH is still below $1,900. Only if it recovers $1,900 and ETH/BTC simultaneously strengthens, will there be a repair foundation for altcoin risk appetite. Panic sentiment doesn’t equal an immediate bottom. Capital confirmation matters more than sentiment readings.
Yesterday to review and tomorrow to focus on: in the review of yesterday, no major news has been found that requires overturning the original judgment. The ETF’s final data confirms that BTC and ETH are both weakening simultaneously, and stablecoin supply hasn’t suddenly expanded. Therefore, the view that “macro caps the upside, leading assets first, and altcoins remain defensive” remains valid.
Tomorrow, first watch the oil price, US Treasury yields, and whether policy expectations before the Fed meeting continue to tighten. Second, watch whether BTC can hold $635,000~$640,000 and also return above $650,000. Third, watch whether the BTC and ETH ETF of the next trading day can stop outflows in sync. Only when at least two among macro, capital, and price improve should risk appetite be increased.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 26 (Fear). For specific positions, order prices, take-profit/stop-loss, and PDF replays, refer to the daily 8:00 AM subscription newsletter and the member archived files. For how to view the archived files, please check the pinned instructions. Risk warning: The above content is only a整理 of the news flow and market scenario analysis, and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset volatility is extremely high—watch position sizing and stop-losses.
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