With only five days left until the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, the market’s view of the upcoming rate decision remains sharply divided.

Interest rate futures show that the market estimates the probability of a rate hike in July is about one-third, while mainstream institutions generally believe the Fed is more likely to hold steady, pushing the first rate hike back to September.

Several observers noted that this is the most inconsistent the market has been in recent years in its expectations of Fed decisions, and it also reflects the policy style of the newly appointed Fed chair, Kevin Warsh—reducing forward guidance so the market cannot judge the policy direction in advance.