$MARA

First, look at the chart: this red candle isn’t exactly gentle.

Looking at Gate TradFi’s most recent complete trading day data as of 2026-07-26 20:23 Beijing time: MARA opened at 12.77, only traded up to 12.83, got hammered down to 12.06, and finally closed at 12.10, falling 5.17% on the day. In other words, it wasn’t that buyers didn’t try to push up intraday—once price tapped around 12.8, it was pushed back down, and the close basically hugged the intraday low.

The key question: is this a one-off emotional selloff following the market’s treatment of Bitcoin mining stocks, or is the market starting to discount its “transition” story again?

First: don’t rush to catch it short-term—12.06 is a critical low.

The most direct support for this stock right now is the 12.06-12.10 range. If it breaks below, the whole number 12 will turn into a psychological line of defense; if 12 can’t hold either, the next level to watch is 11.50-11.70. Resistance above is clearer: first look at 12.50, then 12.80-12.83. Only if it truly reclaims above 13 will short-term bears start to hesitate.

The core of this candlestick isn’t the magnitude of the drop—it’s the placement: the open is close to the prior close, the intraday push higher fails, and it’s ultimately sold down to close near the lows. For bulls to regain control, they can’t rely only on an intraday snapback; they need to hold above 12.50.

Second: the company story is shifting from mining to power and compute infrastructure.

In the 8-K filed by MARA on July 9, it’s stated very plainly: the subsidiary completed transactions related to Texas powered land site arrangements. The project includes land equity interests and a plan for 2,000MW of power capacity, targeting the development of a digital infrastructure campus that can support high-performance computing and Bitcoin mining. The company isn’t just trying to sell one mining rig—it wants to package power, the campus, and compute together.

This line has imagination, but the market will still ask two questions: first, whether the 600 million USD-level milestone payments and development timeline will weigh on cash flow; second, when the high-performance computing tenants will truly come online. It’s easy to tell a story; turning it into the income statement is the hard part.

Third: the Q2 earnings call on August 6 may matter more than this bearish candle.

On July 22, the company announced that the Q2 earnings call is scheduled for 5:00 PM US Eastern time on August 6. With the stock price down to around 12, the market is effectively choosing ahead of earnings: either it believes MARA can transform from a mining stock into power-and-compute asset exposure, or it continues to trade it like a high-beta Bitcoin instrument.

If the call focuses only on vision, the stock price may still need to test below 12 first. If it can clearly explain the power projects, the HPC customers, costs, and BTC production, then around 12 could actually turn into a sentiment low.

Key levels: Resistance above: 12.50, 12.83, support below 13.20: 12.06, 12.00, 11.50

Short-term view: just watch 12.06-12.10. If it holds here, and then rebounds back above 12.50, that’s what counts as short-term downside stabilizing. If it breaks below 12, don’t be overconfident—wait to see whether there’s low-volume stabilization and follow-through in the 11.50-11.70 area.

Swing view: swing traders are better off waiting for confirmation above 13. As long as it stays below 12.8, this is only a weak rebound, not a right-side trend. Once it gets back above 13, then there’s a chance to look at 13.8-14.5.

Long-term view: the long-term question isn’t whether it drops 5% in a day—it’s whether MARA can turn the 2,000MW power resources and the HPC transition into real revenue. If it can deliver, it won’t just be a mining stock; if it can’t, it will remain a high-volatility asset that jumps around with BTC sentiment.

The controversy is here: do you think the market is currently overpunishing a power-and-compute transition target, or has it already seen through how cash-burning these mining-stock transition stories are?