Oil prices have broken above $100, and the market has already pushed the probability of a rate hike on July 29 from about 12% to nearly 38%.

Given the current global inventory drawdown rate, any shipping attack could push prices back above $110.
In theory, the Fed is more cautious than in the past—they need to first observe whether it transmits into core inflation, and only then consider a rate hike.
In fact, even if it affects core inflation, I think the Fed wouldn’t dare to raise rates casually; for now, it only preserves room for a rate hike in September.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.5%–5%, which can be seen as the real interest rate.
Based on the current data, the S&P 500’s forward P/E is about 19.7x, implying an earnings yield of roughly 5.08%—only about 0.4 percentage points higher than the real interest rate, leaving almost no buffer for earnings misses.
Technology stocks are now the ultimate safe haven for everyone’s capital, but once long-end yields keep rising, tech stocks will quickly face valuation compression.
Even if they don’t rise, holding the current market valuations is far more effective than letting rate hikes wipe out that small amount of inflation.