Can you still hold ETH at $1,880?

First, let’s take a look at the surface: a sluggish market, and collapsing confidence.

After rebounding from 1500 at the end of June to 1950, then falling back to 1880, the market has moved sideways like stagnant water over the weekend. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has stayed stagnant, up less than 10% in 30 days, and even lagging behind BTC. The exchange rate is trapped in the 1850-1950 range, with MACD neutral and RSI around 50, indicating a possible breakout. The direction isn’t clear yet, but the big players have already started accumulating.

First thing: ETFs keep seeing inflows, but you may be fooled by “small money.”

Since mid-July, US spot ETH ETFs have been experiencing sustained net inflows, led by BlackRock, exceeding $100 million per week. Doesn’t sound like a lot? But compare it with the continuous outflows in May and June—marginal changes matter more than the absolute numbers.

Second: Supply is locked up, but most people don’t understand it.

Staking ratio is 33-34%—more than 40 million ETH locked, the highest record.

Exchange balances keep falling, with net outflows that never stop.

The amount of ETH available for sale on the market is getting smaller day by day. New sell pressure only comes from miners and unlocks, while on the demand side—ETFs buy, whales accumulate, and companies allocate.

Tight supply + tentative demand = a tightening spring. After macro shifts, ETH’s resilience will crush all short sellers.

Third: FOMC is the catalyst, but the direction depends on a single sentence.

The Fed rate decision meeting on July 28-29 is likely to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The key lies in Powell’s word choice.

Dovish (hinting at rate cuts this year) → ETH jumps to 1950-2000, even 2100+

Hawky (emphasizing sticky inflation) → ETH drops to 1800-1820, even 1750

The battle between bulls and bears—watch for yourself

On one side:

ETFs record net inflows for three consecutive weeks, institutions accumulating at low levels

Staking has fallen more than 34% on exchanges, supply is getting tighter

The rebound from 1500 to 1950 has formed a higher-low, higher-high structure

Whale activity hits a fresh recent peak, big money entering the market

On the other side:

ETH/BTC exchange rate stagnates, lagging behind Bitcoin

FOMC uncertainty, rebound in oil prices weighing on inflation expectations

Bearish market rebound structure, breaking below 2000—everything is “Correction”

Bad weekend liquidity, often causes false breakouts

Key levels

Resistance levels:

1900-1930 → 1950-1960 (key wall) → psychological 2000 level → 2100-2200

Support levels: 1850-1870 (current strong support) → 1800-1820 → 1750-1780

Short-term traders:

Try a small long position on a pullback to 1850-1870, stop loss at 1820, target 1920-1960. If it holds above 1960 and breaks 2000 with volume, add positions with targets of 2100+. If the rebound to 1930-1960 is weak and shows bearish divergence, consider a small short position, stop loss at 1980, target 1850-1800.

Swing traders:

Invest in spot trading gradually within 1800-1900, targeting a confirmed reversal after a real breakout actually above 2200+. ETF inflows keep going + tight supply, offering strong potential for a powerful medium-term upside. But set the stop loss below 1600 (the prior swing low).

Long-term users:

ETH/BTC is at an all-time low, with staking yields of 4-5%, and institutions are entering the market. At this level, holding spot will only waste time, not money.

Strict risk control rules:

Perpetual leverage must not exceed 3-5x.

Single-trade risk must be capped at 2% of total capital.

Follow the three-day de-risking period and watch from the FOMC.

Only by surviving can you wait for the real breakout.

ETH right now is like BTC at the end of 2023

New ETFs are just starting to enter, and everyone thinks “no volume, no market movement,” then it jumps from 40,000 to 70,000.

$ETH ‌$BTC ‌$0G ‌