InfoFi’s former top boss $KAITO is up another 23% today. In the past month it doubled and then took a turn; today it’s also getting a second boost in mid-air. I wouldn’t chase shorts just based on this kind of move by itself.

The reason is simple: a rapid upside move ≠ it’s shortable ❌

Before, I saw a single bullish candle up 20%–30% and thought it had already gone too far. The next day it came again with another 20%. What you really want to short is when the uptrend’s momentum is clearly exhausted—not when it’s up “too much.”

OI in the last 24 hours is up 30.08%, currently reaching $157 million.

This fully shows that in today’s rally, it’s not just old positions swapping hands with each other; instead, a large amount of new leveraged capital is entering the market.

If today’s data were price +23% and OI -20%, I’d actually feel more comfortable. Because that would mean the rise is mainly driven by short covering and long take-profit, implying weak staying power.

Spot trading volume is $18.3 million, while derivatives trading volume is $268 million, for a ratio of about 14.6x. Volatility in the future will definitely become more and more intense—but intensity doesn’t necessarily mean it will drop.

My current assessment for KAITO is 👇.

There hasn’t been a signal yet that I’m willing to proactively open a short. The most critical indicators to watch next are whether the funding rate is rising quickly, and whether the price breaks below the Higher Low for the first time.