Personal views on OpenAI’s IPO. Market reports say OpenAI has already secretly filed a draft registration statement, but there is uncertainty around the listing timeline. Management insists on a $1 trillion target valuation and is unwilling to list at a discount, and does not rule out delaying the listing to 2027.

Objectively, it is the absolute leader in generative AI. ChatGPT has massive user numbers, and its revenue growth is truly astonishing. But the contradictions are equally prominent: enormous compute investment, sustained large losses over the long term, and no clear timetable for realizing profitability. Combined with the recent pressure on SpaceX’s stock price after its listing, Wall Street has become more cautious in valuing mega growth stocks.

On one side is the long-term AGI narrative that fuels the space for imagination; on the other side is the cash-burning model, competition within the industry, and multiple layers of global regulatory pressure. Whether a trillion-dollar valuation can be accepted by the secondary market is highly uncertain. The prospects for the AI sector are beyond doubt, but right now it shouldn’t rely solely on industry faith to justify a high price. Once the formal IPO filing is out, it will be safer to look more closely at the offering valuation and the profitability expectations. #夏日创作营

If you want a more aggressive or a more mildly conservative tone, I can adjust it.