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#夏日创作营 SpaceX cuts its stake in half to 115, yet Starship takes off instead—can you buy the dip now?
A slightly dramatic scene: SpaceX’s Starship just completed its 13th test flight on July 25. The boosters splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico, while the upper-stage spacecraft performed a controlled recovery in the Indian Ocean. Musk said, “Starship is intact, currently floating in the ocean and transmitting telemetry data.”
Just two days earlier, SpaceX’s stock price had hit the lowest closing level since it went public. On one side, the rocket “made it.” On the other, the stock was slashed in half. This kind of twisted setup is the best entry point for understanding where the company stands right now.
First, check the live ledger (SPCX, Nasdaq)
Issue price $135 (6/12) → Peak $225.64 (6/16) → 7/24 close $115.07
Down about 49% from the peak, already below the issue price; 7/23 intraday low $110.85
Current market cap is about $1.5 trillion, having evaporated more than $1 trillion from the high
This week, SpaceX is down about 7%, and Musk’s personal wealth has fallen by about $130 billion in one week
I. Why it fell so hard
It wasn’t that the rocket exploded. The July 16 Starship incident was that the engines didn’t ignite and the mission was automatically aborted, but the real sell-off logic was elsewhere.
Four reasons piled up together:
1、AI narrative repriced
In the early days after listing, the market priced it as “AI compute infrastructure,” with the price-to-sales ratio once soaring to 90–110x (Tesla is around 15x). A Morgan Stanley analyst, Adam Jonas, put it plainly: this round of selling has pushed the stock price to a level “close to a valuation where the market gives no credit at all to AI business.” In other words, what used to be “story premium” has left now that the narrative is fading.
2、Shorts are adding, not retreating
Ortex, a financial data provider, reported on July 24 that investors shorting SpaceX were sitting on unrealized gains of $15.5 billion; among shares available for trading, 56% (about 360 million shares) have been borrowed for shorting. Musk posted on July 17 warning long-term heavy short-sellers that “the probability of survival is extremely low,” but the shorts didn’t close—if anything, they kept adding.
3、Lock-up is a sword hanging overhead
On August 6, 911.5 million shares of restricted stock held by insiders will be released. That corresponds to a maximum market value of about $116 billion. By early December, the float is expected to expand from 639 million shares now to 5.33 billion shares. Supply suddenly multiplying by several times is also the confidence behind the shorts continuing to bet.
4、Consolidation of xAI spreads the losses out
In February this year, SpaceX merged xAI (including Grok and the X platform) at about $250 billion. After consolidation, Q1 2026 revenue was $4.69 billion (year over year +15%), but net loss was $15k, while capital expenditures reached $10.1 billion—2.15x revenue. On the books, “profitable business” and “money-burning business” were shown together for the first time.
II. Whether the future value is worth it—look at three pillars
Aside from the price swings, SpaceX’s business is laid out in three parts. Objectively, their quality differs a lot:
Pillar 1: Starlink (the only cash cow)
Starlink revenue in Q1 was $3.26 billion, accounting for 69.4% of the group. Full-year 2025 contributions are $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit, making it the only globally cash-generating segment. Subscription users are 10.3 million. But the worry is in the details: ARPU (average revenue per user) dropped from $99 in 2023 to $66 in Q1 this year, relying on price cuts to acquire new users. Amazon Kuiper, OneWeb, and China’s GW constellation are all accelerating to grab market share.
Pillar 2: Starship (the cost disruptor)
This 13th test flight deployed 20 commercial-version Starlink V3 satellites for the first time (including 6 with cameras monitoring the heat shield), taking one step closer to “routine commercial launches.” SpaceX’s goal is, with full reuse, to bring the cost to reach orbit down to $183 per kilogram by 2030. Meanwhile, Falcon 9 has already flown 658 times with a success rate above 99%, cutting launch costs by more than 85%. But “fully reusable upper-stage recovery” hasn’t been validated; payload delivery milestones will likely be delayed by 12–18 months versus the original plan.
Pillar 3: AI compute power (most upside, but also the biggest burner)
After merging xAI, SpaceX also secured Google’s long-term agreements (from Oct 2026 to Jun 2029, $92 million per month for about 110k NVIDIA GPUs) and a compute lock-in with Anthropic. If everything lands, it could add about $26 billion in annual revenue. The cost, though, is that free cash flow will stay negative through 2030; from 2026–2030, it’s expected to need to raise about $270 billion more in debt.
III. Objective take: Is it expensive now?
After doing the math, the conclusion isn’t black or white:
Valuation is still too high, but not as insane as it sounded. At a market cap of about $1.5 trillion and estimated 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is about 80x—still far above Tesla (about 15x) and Nvidia (about 32x).
More importantly, break-down valuation (SOTP): research institutions estimate that only about 35% of the current market cap corresponds to already-validated businesses (Falcon 9 + Starlink traditional broadband). The remaining 65%, about $1.3–$1.4 trillion, is effectively all-in on three forward-looking businesses that haven’t been fully proven yet.
The bulls also have a case. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage at “Buy” with a $205 target price, expecting revenue to reach $474.3 billion by 2030 (5-year CAGR of 91%). Average target prices among 29–32 institutions are about $232–$243, while Morgan Stanley gives $300. The bet is that all three future pillars can be realized at the same time.
The bears are watching real constraints: supply shock from lock-up releases; a valuation collapse if the AI narrative gets disproven; and free cash flow staying negative for the long term alongside massive financing needs.
What ordinary investors should look at—just 3 signals to judge whether it’s worth it
1、Can Starship stably deploy commercial payloads?—V3 moving from “successful test flight” to “launches every month” is the foundation for the cost story to hold;
2、After the lock-up on Aug 6, can the stock price hold up?—when several billions of shares come out, the market votes with real money;
3、Do AI compute orders bring in real cash?—confirm revenue in the earnings report; don’t just look at paper agreements.
In the end, what people are buying in SpaceX now is the probability that three future things come true at the same time. If any one falls short, valuation must be reset; if all three work out, then looking back, $115 could be a floor. No rush to conclude—just watch the three signals land one by one. $SPCX
A slightly dramatic scene: SpaceX’s Starship just completed its 13th test flight on July 25. The boosters splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico, and the upper craft was controlled and recovered in the Indian Ocean. Musk said, “Starship is intact and undamaged. It’s floating in the ocean and transmitting telemetry data.”
Just two days before that, SpaceX’s stock price had just hit the lowest closing price since going public. One side is rockets that have turned into “it worked,” the other side is the stock being cut in half. This kind of “twisted” setup is the best entry point for understanding where the company stands right now.
First, the live ledger (SPCX, Nasdaq)
Offering price $135 (6/12) → Peak $225.64 (6/16) → 7/24 close $115.07
Down about 49% from the peak, now below the offering price; intraday low on 7/23 was $110.85
Current market cap is about $1.5 trillion, with more than $1 trillion wiped out versus the high point
This week SpaceX is down about 7%, with Musk’s personal wealth down about $130 billion over the week
1. Why it fell so hard
It’s not that the rocket blew up. The Starship test on July 16 was aborted because an engine didn’t ignite, an automatic shutdown—but the real logic behind the drop is elsewhere.
Four reasons stacked together:
1、AI narrative gets repriced
In the early days after listing, the market priced it as “AI compute infrastructure,” with the price-to-sales ratio once jumping to 90-110x (Tesla is only about 15x). Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently put it plainly: this round of selling has already pushed the stock price to a level where the market is “nearly not giving any valuation for the AI business.” In other words, the part priced in earlier was “story premium,” and now the story is fading—so the premium leaves first.
2、Shorts are adding, not retreating
Financial data provider Ortex said on July 24 that investors shorting SpaceX are already sitting on paper gains of $15.5 billion; of the shares available for trading, 56% (about 360 million shares) have been borrowed to short. Musk warned on July 17 that long-term heavy short sellers have “a very low probability of survival,” but the shorts didn’t close—if anything, they kept adding.
3、Unlocking is a sword hanging overhead
On August 6, 911.5 million shares of restricted stock held by insiders will unlock, corresponding to a maximum market value of about $116 billion; by early December, the shares in circulation are expected to expand from the current 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares. Supply suddenly multiplies by several times—that’s also why the shorts feel emboldened to keep betting.
4、xAI consolidation spreads the losses out
This year in February, SpaceX merged xAI for about $250 billion (including Grok and the X platform). After consolidation, Q1 2026 revenue was $4.69 billion (year over year +15%), but net loss was $15k, and capital expenditures were $10.1 billion—2.15x revenue. On the books, “businesses that make money” and “businesses that burn cash” are being shown together for the first time.
2. Are future values worth it? Look at the three pillars
Regardless of whether the stock rises or falls, SpaceX’s business breakdown comes in three parts. Objectively, the quality is very different:
Pillar one: Starlink (the only cash cow)
Starlink revenue in Q1 was $3.26 billion, accounting for 69.4% of the group. Full-year 2025, it contributes $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit—globally the only segment that generates positive cash flow. It has 10.3 million subscribers. But the worry is in the details: average revenue per user (ARPU) fell from $99 in 2023 to $66 in this year’s Q1, driven by price cuts to attract new users. Amazon Kuiper, OneWeb, and China’s GW constellation are all accelerating to grab share.
Pillar two: Starship (the cost disruptor)
On this 13th test flight, it first deployed 20 commercial-version Starlink V3 satellites (including 6 with cameras monitoring the heat shield). It’s one step closer to “regularized commercial launches.” SpaceX’s goal is full reuse, and to reduce the cost to $183 per kilogram to orbit by 2030. But Falcon 9 has already flown 658 times with a success rate above 99%, cutting launch costs by more than 85%. Still, “complete reusability via upper-stage recovery” hasn’t been verified. The payload delivery timeline will very likely be delayed by 12-18 months versus the original plan.
Pillar three: AI compute (the biggest upside imagination, also the most burning cash)
After merging xAI, SpaceX also secured Google’s long-term agreement (from October 2026 to June 2029: $92 million per month to lock in about 110k NVIDIA GPUs) and compute commitment from Anthropic. If all of it lands, it could add about $26 billion in revenue per year. But the cost is that free cash flow will remain negative through 2030; from 2026-2030, SpaceX is expected to raise about $270 billion in additional debt.
3. Objective judgment: is it expensive now?
Do the math, and the conclusion isn’t simply black or white:
Valuation is still high, but not that outrageous. Using about a $1.5 trillion market cap and a 2025 revenue estimate of $18.7 billion, the price-to-sales (PS) is about 80x—still far above Tesla (about 15x) and Nvidia (about 32x).
More importantly, look at sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP). Research institutions estimate that in today’s market cap, only about 35% corresponds to already-validated businesses (Falcon 9 + Starlink’s traditional broadband). The remaining 65%, about $1.3-1.4 trillion, is entirely bet on three forward-looking businesses that haven’t been fully proven yet.
The bulls also aren’t without reasons. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage in early July with a “Buy” and a $205 target. It expects revenue to surge to $474.3 billion by 2030 (five-year CAGR 91%). The average target price across 29-32 institutions is about $232-243, and Morgan Stanley gives $300. The bet is that all three future parts can be delivered at the same time.
The bears focus on real constraints: supply impact from unlocks; a valuation collapse if the AI narrative is disproven; and persistently negative free cash flow plus massive financing needs over the long term.
For ordinary people to judge whether it’s worth it, you only need to watch 3 signals
1、Whether Starship can stably deploy commercial payloads - V3 moving from “successful test flight” to “monthly launches” is the foundation for the cost story to hold;
2、After the August 6 unlock, whether the stock price can hold up - billions of shares pouring out, and the market votes with real money;
3、Whether AI compute orders bring in real cash - confirm income from financial reports, don’t just look at paper agreements.
In the end, what people are buying in SpaceX right now is the probability that “these three future things get delivered at the same time.” If any one falls short, valuation will need to be reset. If all three work out, then in hindsight the current $115 could be the floor. No need to rush to a conclusion—just watch those three signals land one by one. $SPCX