Yesterday, I reminded everyone that for short-term spot trading, there was capital inflow. At the same time, technically, there was a chance for a rebound within the 4-hour timeframe. The market has also confirmed it by moving out a small rebound. Every reminder I make is always backed by reason.

Currently, BTC and ETH have both gone through a recovery characterized by a consolidation-then-uptrend. BTC is currently being suppressed by the first resistance at 64,600. Meanwhile, ETH’s rebound has been stronger: both the 1,872 and 1,888 levels have already been touched. Looking at the chart, BTC should have an opportunity to pull back toward around 64,150. ETH should have an opportunity to pull back toward around 1,865.

So, the short positions entered at the target levels can be held to the target area to reduce position and/or take profit.

Also, one more thing to note is that this slow rebound for BTC and ETH on the 4-hour timeframe did not get effective volume expansion. This means BTC still has the possibility to test around 65,100, and ETH may head toward around 1,900. Of course, the weak trading volume on Saturday is also a factor to consider.

For Monday’s pre-market: as long as BTC does not break above 65,700, the short positions can be held while waiting for the drop and the pullback to the take-profit target. If it breaks above 65,700, then shorts should exit to avoid risk or reduce exposure to a controllable risk area.

Today’s strategy: Shorts near 64,600 for BTC—reduce the position near 64,100 to secure breakeven, or take profit first.

If price pushes up toward 65,100, you can continue adding one more short. Defense remains 65,500. If you want a wider buffer for risk, set a stop loss at 65,700. Take profit first looks at 64,150.

Support: 64,100 / 63,200 / 62,200. (For an aggressive pullback to 64,100, you can try adding longs again, defense at 63,700.) For the more conservative approach, wait for the first pullback to 63,200 and 62,200 to look for long entries. Corresponding defenses remain 62,700 and 61,600, with take profit at 63,000 / 63,700. If BTC breaks below 63,700, then the 4-hour bulls are considered invalid; if you do take longs then, keep it light.

ETH resistance: 1,888 and 1,905 are both short opportunities. Defense is 1,920; take profit first looks at 1,865. Once it’s reached, you can reduce position, push toward breakeven, or take profit first.

Support: 1,855 / 1,815 / 1,793. (If there’s support around 1,855 and it holds for 1 minute to go flat, you can try adding longs again, defense at 1,840 remains unchanged. Take profit at 1,870 to reduce position and push toward breakeven, then keep watching for 1,885 or above.) If it breaks below 1,840, then any longs at the next two levels should be light and only for attempts, with defenses at 1,800 and 1,770 unchanged. Take profit of 15–20 points: reduce position and push toward breakeven.

Of course, if in Monday’s pre-market it sells hard and breaks below 1,840, then you don’t necessarily need to pick up longs—because by that time the 4-hour chart has already broken that level, and it’s likely to slowly retrace toward the daily lower band. Then look to re-enter longs around 1,750 near the daily lower band.

All the levels I gave today include two possible trading scenarios and methods. Since 63,700 and ETH 1,840 have not been broken yet, we’ll keep the possibility that the market rebounds again and makes a new high. Shorts—especially large-position shorts—should pay attention to this. After all, with the Iran-Iraq war being so intense, the market didn’t show an急速急跌 (rapid selloff). You can understand it as the longs hard-holding through a hype-and-dump that lures in? But why isn’t it because the longs are strong enough to push and then force a short squeeze to stop the shorts and then drop?

So in the trading market, there is never a confirmed direction. The only certainty is: “The market always has uncertainty.”

Don’t trade with luck or wishful thinking. Either follow trading discipline well, or do good risk control and manage position sizing.

Wishing everyone a smooth trade. Enjoy your weekend!
See you on the night live stream! $BTC ‌$ETH ‌