$NBIS

Nebius at $190.75—down 13.76% in a day. Do you dare to catch this flying knife?
First, check the chart: this bearish candle is indeed ruthless.
Over a full recent trading day, NBIS’s previous close was $221.19, but it opened by dropping straight to $211.18. The high only touched $213.52, then it kept getting dumped all the way down to $190.14, and finally closed at $190.75. In a single day it evaporated $30.44, and it closed almost right at the low point—this isn’t a normal pullback. Bulls didn’t even organize a decent counterattack.
First: its growth story isn’t just hot air.
Nebius posted Q1 revenue of $399 million, versus $50.9 million in the same period last year—up 684% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA also flipped from a loss of $53.7 million to a profit of $129.5 million. The company also has a five-year compute power agreement with Meta worth up to about $27 billion. On July 17, it disclosed again that incremental contract revenue from investment-grade customers such as Microsoft and Meta has already exceeded $40 billion.
Sounds strong, right? But the market isn’t short of stories anymore—it’s short of turning contracts into steady cash flow.
Second: in the AI cloud business, the faster you expand, the faster you burn money.
In Q1, the company spent about $2.47B on buying properties, equipment, and intangible assets. On July 17, it also secured about $775 million for its first tranche of senior secured debt financing, with an interest rate of SOFR + 2.5%, supported by GPU infrastructure and contract cash flows. The financing terms don’t look too bad—the real source of anxiety is the size of capital expenditures. Orders are big, and fulfilling those orders requires feeding the data centers, GPUs, and power—one bite at a time.
Third: this big drop doesn’t show a clear negative catalyst announcement from the company on the same day.
So it looks more like a high-valuation, high-expectations product is being repriced. Even good companies fear expectations getting too full. Once capital starts to pull out, the sell-off doesn’t play fair.
Key levels:
Resistance above: $200 → $211.18—$213.52 → $221.19 Support below: $190.14—$190
For day traders: first see whether $190 can hold, then whether the price has the strength to claw back $200. If $190 breaks and you still insist on catching, you might not be catching a gold pit—you might be catching a knife that’s still falling.
For swing traders: true strengthening needs at least reclaiming the $211—$214 zone, otherwise any bounce is more like trapped funds getting a breath of air. If it can’t get back, don’t rush to treat “down a lot” as a reason to buy.
For long-term investors: don’t just stare at the contract numbers. Next, focus on three things—how fast contract revenue gets realized, the pace of capital expenditures, and whether debt financing can be covered by stable cash flow. Nebius isn’t short of customers or imagination; what it lacks is proving across multiple consecutive quarters that it can turn compute demand into real cash.
An additional contract revenue of over $40 billion is on the table, yet the stock is down 13.76% in a single day.
Is the market mispricing and overreacting to a new AI compute heavyweight—or is it finally starting to account for the costs of heavy asset expansion?