Analysis: US Treasury yields hit a high, and four major risk factors are suppressing Bitcoin’s rebound

Deep Tide TechFlow message. On July 26, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly report analysis stating that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has recently risen to about 4.7%, approaching the upper bound of the range over the past five years. The high-interest-rate environment is tightening financial conditions, increasing borrowing costs and asset discount rates, and putting additional pressure on risk assets.

After rebounding about 11% from the June low of around $59k to nearly $66k, Bitcoin is currently down to about $64.3k. The market is seeing four potential risks at the same time that could weigh on Bitcoin’s rebound:

First, volatility has compressed significantly. In July, actual volatility fell by 31%, suggesting that more severe market moves may follow.

Second, demand in the U.S. spot market remains weak, with no sustained net inflow of funds yet.

Third, there is insufficient market buying liquidity. Stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges, and the activity level of new funds is nearing its annual low.

Fourth, investors are still realizing losses. During the profit-recovery phase, some positions are choosing to exit, which is creating pressure on prices.