July 26: The gold monthly line is about to close. The weekly line is turning bullish, layered with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. After this, will gold break down and fall further, or rebound and move upward?

This week, gold as a whole followed a bottoming-out and rebound trend. On Monday, it tested the 3960 bottom support again and rebounded. It rebounded to a high of $4,166 on Wednesday, then stalled, and finally saw a slight pullback. By Friday, it closed at $4,053. On the weekly level, it formed a bullish candle at the bottom with a long upper wick.

## Fundamentals
The China-U.S. [Iran]-U.S. conflict erupts again, but the market is no longer placing confidence in the uncertainty caused by Trump’s multidimensional shift, so the market is showing a very high level of uncertainty. In addition, after gold surged to $4,166 last week, it did not, as expected, launch an attack on the $4,200 level. Instead, it sharply plunged and fell back, and there is also pressure from profit-taking positions, which has weighed on price action.

## Outlook for next week
On Thursday next week, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. First, the decline in the 6-month CPI data is a fact. The market has bought the rumor and sold the fact. But the Federal Reserve speaks with the data. Market expectations for further rate hikes have been extended to September. Even if, due to the conflict, energy prices rise again and inflation rebounds again, that still needs to be delayed. Therefore, in my view, next week the Federal Reserve will most likely keep interest rates unchanged.

Also, this China-U.S. [Iran]-U.S. conflict is definitely a pattern of fighting, then pausing. In repeated cycles, negotiations ultimately get settled. Although the conflict has erupted again now, as time goes on, the duration of each outbreak becomes shorter. However, by this weekend, the market did not continue to release an escalation trend that would prolong the conflict.

Overall, in my view, next week gold will most likely continue to rebound upward. But it’s not excluded that it may first test the 3960 low point and then rebound upward. Overall, in the coming week, attention should be focused on whether there are good-news developments from the China-U.S. [Iran]-U.S. conflict leading to talks, and on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday!$XAUUSD ‌