$POL ‌Bullish and bearish logic analysis, for reference only

I. Fundamental bull-bear logic (Latest as of July 2026)

Key bullish factors (long-term support value)

1. Tokenomics officially enters net deflation

2. Major breakthroughs in the institutional + payments track

3. Clear technology roadmap, and the ecosystem’s scale remains among the top tier

4. No large unlocks that could create sell-pressure in circulation

Fatal bearish factors (short-term suppression of the market)

1. Ongoing regulatory pressure

2. Short-term on-chain activity cools down, and the price has not reflected the fundamentals
Although long-term deflation and continuous institutional cooperation are present, over the past two months on-chain transaction activity has fallen; funds have prioritized flows into BTC and ETH. The rotation in the Layer-2 sector appears relatively weak, and the market has remained in a downward-channel range-bound consolidation.

3. Competition among similar L2s siphons liquidity

4. Highly correlated with Bitcoin, with no independent market trend

II. Long-term spot trading execution strategy

Long-term spot (3–12 months, betting on institutional payments + deflation narrative)

Suitable for: idle funds that won’t be needed for 1+ year, can withstand 30%+ drawdowns, and can allocate to blue-chip public-chain tracks

1. Position limit: POL total spot position must not exceed 8% of total crypto assets; blue chips may be allocated somewhat higher than smaller coins, but重仓 is strictly forbidden.
2. Staggered spot entry plan:
- First layer of core position 50%: allocate in the 0.068–0.075 range at current prices
- Second layer add-on 30%: buy the dip to fill at deep support of 0.060–0.067
- Remaining 20%: if it breaks below 0.060, give up the add-on, and exit with an unconditional stop-loss
3. Tiered take-profit plan:
- First take-profit 40%: 0.082–0.085; when the rally hits resistance, realize part of the profits first
- Second take-profit 40%: 0.090–0.093; cut down significantly into the mid-term resistance
- Remaining 20% core position: hold until year-end as institutional payments volume expands; only clear out after on-chain burn data continues to rise
4. Hard stop-loss: if the daily closing price falls below 0.060, sell everything and exit immediately; do not hold to average down

Investing involves risk; enter the market with caution.