As of July 26, spot gold is trading at about $4,048–$4,050 per ounce. Over the past week, gold prices have swung violently—after jumping to $4,131 on July 22, they fell nearly 2% in a single day on the 23rd to around $4,000. Gold prices have been trading in a tight range of $3,940–$4,200 for nearly five weeks, and have yet to form an effective breakout.

The most essential change in this round is that gold’s traditional safe-haven logic has been completely rewritten. A new transmission chain has formed: geopolitical conflicts → oil prices surge → inflation expectations heat up → Fed rate-hike expectations strengthen → real yields rise → gold comes under pressure. Oil prices breaking through $100 has intensified concerns about inflation; market pricing for a rate hike in September has jumped to 82%. The 10-year Treasury yield remains at a high level of 4.69%, the U.S. Dollar Index holds above 101, creating a double drag on gold, a zero-yield asset.

In the short term, ahead of the FOMC decision (July 28–29), gold prices are very likely to keep oscillating in the $4,000–$4,100 range. $4,000 is the key lifeline for bulls and bears; $4,200 above is strong resistance. Looking in the medium to long term, central banks’ continued gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty still provide a floor of support for gold prices.

Crude oil has been the most volatile asset recently. Brent spot prices at one point on July 24 broke above $100 per barrel for the first time since late May, surging more than 36% versus the end of June; the WTI weekly gain at one point neared 11%.

The driving logic is highly clear: near-stoppage of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the Houthis’ blockade of Red Sea routes—including Saudi routes—puts simultaneous pressure on the two major Middle East energy export corridors. The U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iran for 13 consecutive nights, and the market has repriced for a long-term supply disruption.

However in the early hours of July 26, Trump suddenly called off airstrikes on Iran, and an Oman delegation moved into Iran to negotiate navigation through the strait. Oil prices plunged on the news: Brent fell back to about $89–$90, while WTI dropped to about $86–$87. Under Goldman’s extreme scenario, if shipping disruptions continue through 2027, Brent in Q4 could break above $120; but if negotiations progress and the geopolitical risk premium is cleared quickly, oil prices could also fall rapidly.

The two sides’ core variables overlap heavily right now—FOMC decisions and the Middle East situation. Gold is constrained by the negative feedback chain of “oil price → inflation → rate hikes,” and whether the $4,000 level holds or breaks is crucial; crude oil, meanwhile, is entirely dominated by geopolitics, and any diplomatic signals could trigger sharp two-way volatility. The super central bank week is arriving—markets are in the night before a turning point. #夏日创作营