Before the market opened on Monday, a warning

—What’s most worth watching on Monday isn’t the opening move itself, but the “second act” in the European and New York sessions.

Before the market opened on Monday, new variables emerged in the Middle East situation:

According to Yemen TV, the Saudi-led coalition launched strikes on military targets of the Houthis late Saturday night. In addition, the Houthis also announced they would blockade Saudi ports and, in the Red Sea, attacked two oil tankers linked to Saudi Arabia.

Previously, the Houthis attacked mostly merchant ships in the Red Sea. This time, they went directly after Saudi Arabia—placing the target on Saudi export oil itself.

To understand the two locations:

· The first shipping route—the Strait of Hormuz—is the main passage through which Persian Gulf countries ship their oil out.

· The second shipping route—the Red Sea—is a “backup lifeline” Saudi Arabia has prepared for itself. Saudi Arabia’s eastern oil fields flow via east-west pipelines to Yanbu, and then the oil is exported through the Red Sea, forming an important alternative route. If the backup route is also affected, uncertainty in global oil supply would be further amplified. The biggest change now isn’t the scale of the war, but that risk starting to “spread.” It has evolved from “the Iran war driving up oil prices” into “a stress test for the entire Middle East oil transportation system.”

There’s another development worth noting:

After the U.S. carried out continuous airstrikes on Iran for 13 days, air raids suddenly paused between Friday night and Saturday—leaving the final say with Trump. That could be good news (creating a window for negotiations) or bad news (redeploying for a larger-scale operation).

First, when the market opens on Monday, it won’t be as simple as “oil prices up by a few points and stocks down by a few points.” Investors will be assessing a bigger question: whether oil prices can “lock in” the weekend Red Sea risk. If oil prices gap higher at the open and then don’t pull back during the session, it suggests the market believes the risk has been fully priced in. If oil prices gap higher and then quickly fall back, it suggests the market still views it as a short-term shock it can absorb. In other words, the market cares more about the “second act” after the open.

Second, worth mentioning is that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is approaching 4.70% (Trump’s “political pressure line,” but not a red line that automatically triggers a rescue). This gives Trump a reason to make concessions. Even so, Trump likely won’t choose to soothe the market during Asian hours; at minimum, he’ll wait until after U.S. stocks open.

Monday isn’t a day to confirm direction—it’s a day to pressure-test risk.