The recent price action looks like it’s deliberately trying to look strong. Several times it pumped the price up to the highs, but each time it quickly spiked and then fell back. I started watching for shorts around 0.03382—not because it had already dropped, but because I felt the sell pressure above never truly disappeared.

When I first held the short positions, the chart would still suddenly bounce back, and there were even a few fake breakouts—it really tests your mindset. A lot of people see a rebound and panic, getting off the trade. What I care about more is whether there’s new absorption after the bounce. When the price came to around 0.01421, the bids clearly couldn’t keep up, and the shorts began releasing continuously along key levels.

The performance result for this round was +2792.36%. What I’m most satisfied with isn’t the number itself, but that I wasn’t tricked into entering at the highs by superficial strength, and I didn’t lose my rhythm because of the random wick spikes in the middle. Before the market truly turns weaker, it often first gives people hope repeatedly, and then slowly traps the people chasing entries.

After this downswing, I’ve become even more convinced of counter-trend tactics. Looking strong doesn’t necessarily mean there’s real power. Whether it can hold its ground and whether there is absorption—ultimately, it still needs to be validated by price action.

$BTC $ETH