#夏日创作营 A highly anticipated Changxin listing—will you participate?

Whether you can participate in Changxin during trading hours, we did a scenario analysis for reference only and it does not constitute investment advice:

Changxin’s issue price is 8.66 per share, and its issue market capitalization is 579.2 billion. Based on Changxin’s projected 2026 first-half revenue of 66 billion to 75 billion (full-year expected 150 billion), and using the average 21x valuation multiple from Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, we estimate Changxin Technology’s reasonable market cap to be in the $2.5 trillion–$3 trillion range, corresponding to a share price range of 40–48.

There are likely three scenarios:

【Probability ~60%】First scenario: If Changxin Technology’s listing opens with a jump directly to the top—e.g., a 500%–1000% opening gain—and the opening market cap is over $3 trillion+, the upside space is very narrow, so it’s not recommended to participate.

【Probability ~30%】Second scenario: If Changxin Technology’s listing opens with a gain of 300%–500%, with a market cap in the $1.5 trillion–$3 trillion range; then you can gamble with a small amount.

【Probability ~10%】Third scenario: If Changxin Technology’s listing opens with a gain of below 300%, with a market cap within $1.5 trillion, then you can participate. (Investing is risky; for reference only.)