The US jobs market delivers its strongest performance in nearly 60 years: in the week ending July 18, initial jobless claims plunged to 187k, the lowest since September 1969, far below market expectations of 212k.

The moment the data hit, the Fed’s rate-hike cycle fully “unloaded its burden” — CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 82%, from under 53% a week earlier.

💡 Overheated employment + oil prices breaking $100 have brought “inflation proving persistent” back to the trading main line.

The market reaction was immediate: SPY (S&P 500 ETF) fell 1.21% on Thursday, TSLA slumped by more than 14%, and the “Seven Giants” wiped out nearly $800 billion in a single day; CL (WTI crude oil futures) broke through $100 per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.7135%.

With strong employment plus a hawkish pivot, the essence is “double pressure” on risk assets: on one side, the macro base that supports corporate earnings is holding steady; on the other, rising discount rates are crushing valuations. In the short term, CL crude oil and US Treasury yields remain the pricing anchors, and whether SPY can hold near the 7,400-point level will depend on how tough the Federal Reserve’s wording is in next week’s decision.