On July 25, Iranian state TV released satellite images, claiming that U.S. military units’ ammunition depot within the King Faisal Air Base in Jordan was “completely destroyed.” The subsequent explosions also reportedly affected the following equipment and support facilities, putting strain on the U.S. logistics network. Jordan, meanwhile, emphasized that its air-defense system intercepted 7 missiles and 6 drones. The two sides’ narratives show a clear temperature gap, turning battle-damage assessments into a tangle of conflicting accounts.

Market reactions were direct and intense. After news of the Iranian strike broke, WTI crude oil in the non-public market briefly jumped 2.25%; Brent moved above $88 per barrel, with a weekly cumulative gain of nearly 16%. In contrast, S&P 500 futures (SPX) fell, and risk assets such as U.S. stock storage and semiconductors came under pressure. The safe-haven route for capital was clear: the United States Oil Fund (USO) became the target of retail buying, with $115 million in inflows over five days, reaching a record high. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), backed by heavyweight stocks such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron, became a mainstream tool for diversified bets on oil prices.

⚠️ In the short term, the geopolitical premium for oil prices and energy stocks is highly dependent on the progress of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of ceasefire negotiations. In the “futures premium” phase, futures-based ETFs such as USO also face roll costs, so chasing gains should be done cautiously.