#夏日创作营

In the past few days, Hong Kong stocks have performed fairly well.
So, as Hong Kong stocks rebound, is it a bounce or a reversal?
First, here’s the answer: I think it’s basically the same as tech—after an A-wave selloff, it’s a rebound, not a reversal.
I. From the perspective of capital
In Hong Kong stocks, the players that relatively have pricing power, or that have a bigger impact on price movements, are foreign institutions.
Foreign institutions account for roughly 60%-70% of Hong Kong stocks.
And among these foreign institutions, there are two parts:
allocation capital and trading capital.
Of these, there is more allocation capital, which is geared toward the long term.
That means it’s not about making a quick bet as a gambler, but rather that they genuinely think you’ve fallen too much.
Some USD capital considers Hong Kong as part of the Asian market—after this portion has fallen a lot, they fill in positions and then make allocations.
Another portion is trading capital, which is more short-term.
It has a certain speculative nature.
That is to say, it sees you having a trend in the period ahead, and then the money pours in.
Earlier on, wasn’t there a frenzy in Korea—Samsung and SK hynix surging? Those funds then all moved to Korea, so the whole Hong Kong stock market dimmed.
According to statistical data, as of the first week of July, foreign allocation-type capital flowed in more, while trading-type capital not only didn’t flow in, but actually saw some outflows.
Overall, it looks like Hong Kong stocks had fallen too much, so everyone is coming to add allocations. But we haven’t seen any signal of a reversal yet.
So, from a capital perspective, it still leans toward a rebound rather than a reversal.
II. From the perspective of sectors
So, from the perspective of sectors, what about it?
In the Hong Kong stock market, there are basically only a few kinds of sectors:
innovative drugs, Hang Seng TECH, new consumption, and state-owned and central-government-owned assets with a dividend-like bias.
So what’s the logic behind the sectors that are rising now?
Innovative drugs are driven by optimism about their mid-term performance.
Hang Seng TECH (AI applications) is mainly because people expect improving marginal growth, but current results have not yet been validated.
III. From the perspective of liquidity
Right now, the US Federal Reserve is still tightening rates only in words.
Not only that, the Hong Kong stock market will also face a round of release/unlockings in late September this year.
Although, to hedge the impact of unlockings, relevant parties at multiple companies have voluntarily promised to extend locked-up periods or not to reduce holdings within a certain time frame,
the unlocking wave itself will inevitably to some extent raise market concerns about liquidity.
On one side, expectations of US rate hikes are shrinking liquidity.
On the other side, the unlocking wave adds another fire.
Add to that the fact that global liquidity is still on the tight side.
When liquidity tightens, it means there’s less market capital.
Whether the bull market is over—we won’t get into that. Stepping back a notch, even if there really is a bull market, it would be a structural bull market.
After all, there’s only so much money. It’s easy to lose focus—save Hong Kong stocks and still need to save the broader A-shares.
So overall, because Hong Kong stocks previously fell quite deeply, there is still a rebound here.
But whether it truly turns into a reversal—Xiaocaishen thinks you should be more cautious and wait and see.