July 26, 2026 (Sunday) ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures Practical Trading Strategy

I. Core market tone for the day

The medium-term bearish trend on the daily timeframe remains unchanged. Price is staying in a tight, weak range of 1835-1890; on Sunday, market liquidity shrinks dramatically. Institutional capital exits, order book depth is insufficient, and needle-wick stop-hunts and amplified slippage are the norm. The market is fully correlated with BTC, with volatility about 20% higher than BTC.

Overall trading approach: mainly high short, with light low long tactical bets. All orders are limited to intraday scalps only. Close all positions before 22:00. Do not hold positions across the Sunday midnight liquidity vacuum period.

Key price levels

Resistance: 1945-1955 (daily strong pressure), 1890-1905 (intraday core short zone), 1878 (1-hour long/short pivot line)
Support: 1835-1840 (intraday support), 1810-1820 (strong support at the lower boundary of the box range), 1760-1770 (trend extreme support)

II. Three standardized execution plans

Plan 1: Sell at resistance (primary intraday strategy)

1. Entry range: 1890~1905

2. Entry confirmation condition: the 1-hour candlestick rallies to a high and closes with a long upper wick; RSI＞68 with signs of stalling; trading volume contracts. Only open a trade when the real body touches the range. Do not chase shorts on a single-needle spike.

3. Layered take-profit: take off 50% at the first target 1878; move the stop-loss up to break-even at the entry cost in sync. Second target: exit all at 1835.

4. Stop-loss level: 1960 (buffer above the daily strong pressure, avoiding weekend stop-hunts by wicks)

5. Position leverage: each trade uses no more than 3% of total account funds; leverage 3-5x; isolated margin per position

Plan 2: Buy at support (secondary, only light-capital contrarian play)

1. Entry range: 1835~1840

2. Entry confirmation condition: two consecutive 1-hour bullish candles show selling is stopping; buy-side orders increase volume and absorb. Do not bottom-fish with a single needle dip; wait for the K-line to fully stabilize.

3. Layered take-profit: take off half at the first target 1878; exit all at the second target 1900. Do not hold long positions for the long term.

4. Stop-loss level: 1820; if the box-range support breaks, the long thesis is immediately invalid.

5. Position leverage: each trade uses no more than 2% of total funds; leverage 2-4x; position size is smaller than shorts

Plan 3: Breakout trend-following single (backup for extreme conditions; try to participate as little as possible on Sunday)

Bearish breakout trend-following

Trigger condition: a 4-hour real-bodied close breaks below 1835, with volume expanding in the downward move
Entry point: open a short around 1830 following the trend
Target 1: 1810; Target 2: 1765
Stop-loss: above the 1878 pivot line

Bullish breakout trend-following (very low probability)

Trigger condition: a volume-backed real-bodied hold above 1905, followed by strong consecutive 4-hour bullish candles
Entry point: chase long at 1910
Target: 1950
Stop-loss: 1860

III. Sunday-specific hard risk-control rules

1. Maximum total position risk: total risk of all open positions during the entire day must not exceed 5% of principal. Any overnight carryover left from Friday must be cut in half in advance. Avoid heavy-position gambles.

2. Unified margin standard: use isolated margin mode for everything; isolate the risk of liquidation from a single market scenario. Disable cross-full margin.

3. Mandatory stop-loss requirement: every order must have a stop-loss placed in advance. With weekend volatility rising, the stop-loss zone must be widened by 1.5 times compared with weekdays. No stop-loss means no new position.

4. Position-holding time rule (ironclad): all intraday trades must be closed before 22:00. Do not hold positions across the Sunday midnight period with low liquidity. Avoid large wick-like spikes and sharp dips without reason.

5. Leverage control: in the box-range oscillation, maximum leverage is 5x. Trend-following breakout-break trades must not exceed 8x. Throughout the entire process, no operations above 10x leverage are allowed.

6. Funding rate avoidance: the current funding rate is slightly negative. Do not hold long positions for a long time. Avoid taking large positions during the midnight settlement window.

IV. In-session execution details to avoid traps

1. Filter fake breakouts: pressure at the 1878 pivot and support at the 1835 box are prone to single-needle induced longs/induced shorts. You must wait for a 1-hour complete K-line close confirmation signal. Do not open trades based on a single wick alone.

2. Slippage control: on Sunday, the bid-ask spread is huge; market orders suffer serious slippage. Use limit orders for all entries to reduce execution loss.

3. BTC linkage constraint: when BTC has not broken above 6470 and has not fallen below 6370, reduce the frequency of opening ETH positions—watch more, act less.

4. Signal priority by timeframe: the 4-hour K-line defines the overall oscillation range; use the 1-hour timeframe to find precise entry points. The 15-minute K-line is only for signal filtering, not a standalone basis for opening trades based on small-cycle timing.

5. Take-profit discipline: when reaching the first target, first reduce to lock in profit. Weekend oscillation space is limited, so do not gamble on excess one-sided moves.

V. Contingency plan for dynamic market switching

1. Oscillation in the 1835-1890 range (highest probability): strictly execute high-sell low-buy, fast in fast out, and do not leave overnight positions.

2. Valid breakdown below 1835: fully close long positions, then follow the trend to open shorts. Targets are 1810 and 1765.

3. Volume-backed hold above 1878: you may participate slightly in long rebounds. However, when price touches the 1890-1905 range, high shorts remain the primary approach. If 1955 is not broken, do not change the medium-term bearish base case.

4. Volume-backed breakout above 1955: the short-term structure turns stronger. Cancel all high-short plans and fully switch to a trend-following long mindset#夏日创作营 $ETH ‌