Trump calls off airstrikes—oil prices plunge—but don’t get too excited about your BTC yet

For 13 straight days, every afternoon he approves, and hours later the strikes begin.

On July 25, Trump received the same war plan but didn’t approve it.

Stopped.

After the news broke, WTI crude in the dark market fell nearly 4%, while Brent dropped more than 3%.

So what then? Did BTC rebound?

Don’t rush.

A few hours before the pause in airstrikes, the Omani delegation had just arrived in Tehran.

Two sources from the region said: negotiations are making progress, and an agreement could be reached over the weekend.

Trump’s reason was—“A deal is the smarter strategy.”

The market’s first reaction: geopolitical risk cools down → oil prices fall → inflation expectations ease → risk assets get to breathe.

Does the logic hold together? It does.

But do you really believe this is peace?

Trump’s exact words: “If we can’t get from Iran 100% of what we want, we will absolutely consider restarting full-scale war.”

100%. Not a single word less.

CJCS Chairman Gen. Kane privately warned that expanding the actions against Iran would “dangerously” deplete the inventory of Patriot interceptors.

Plain translation: it’s not that they don’t want to fight—it’s that the ammunition is running out fast.

This is a ceasefire? No, this is “pause for a bit, restock, then talk.”

What does it mean for the crypto market?

Short term (bullish):

Oil prices drop → inflation expectations cool → U.S. Treasury yields may stabilize → risk assets get breathing room
If BTC can hold around 64k, there’s indeed a window for a short-term rebound

Medium term (bearish):

Trump talks “100%,” but he’s holding “full-scale war” in his hand

The military’s urgent ammo situation points to two possibilities: either strategic contraction (geopolitical risk cools in the short term), or additional military spending (worsening fiscal deficit)

Either way, it’s not a risk-on playbook

Most deadly of all—until the Strait of Hormuz is actually reopened, 20% of global oil supply is still stuck in that waterway. Negotiations making progress ≠ deal reached.

Let me say something that hurts

You see the words “pause airstrikes” and rush in to bottom-fish.

But what’s paused is airstrikes, not the war.

A 4% oil drop is a fact, but Brent has gained 26% cumulatively this month.

A 4% dip is a pullback, not a reversal.

Don’t treat a tactical pause as strategic peace.

My take

You can try to trade a short-term rebound, but set a stop-loss.

The real signal is when the Strait of Hormuz is truly restored to normal navigation—not “negotiations making progress.”

Until then—

Trump’s mouth is more unpredictable than his missiles. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $CL $BZ