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The oil shock I flagged this morning is printing. Brent jumped more than 9%, its biggest daily move since 2020, after the US reinstated the Hormuz blockade and moved to halt Iranian shipping. The last time this blockade ran, crude pushed past $120. This is no longer a headline to fade, it's a live macro shock.
Here's the transmission into crypto: higher oil feeds inflation, inflation hardens a Fed already flirting with hikes, and that combination pulls liquidity and pressures risk. BTC's already softening (back below $64.2K) as the reflex plays out. The move I'd watch isn't the first-day spike, it's whether energy stays elevated long enough to change the rate path. Geopolitics just took the wheel back from the tokenization story.
Not advice, just analysis.
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