#夏日创作营 Night Before the Storm! BTC and ETH Trade Sideways With Squeezed Volume in Sync, and the FOMC Decision Could Ignite the Next Bull Cycle (In-Depth Analysis)

The biggest truth in the crypto market right now: all major coins are holding their breath, waiting for momentum!
As of July 26, 2026, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen into an extreme low-volume sideways consolidation. The price action looks calm and steady, but beneath the surface, the duel between bulls and bears is heating up, and the market is waiting for a decisive breakout signal—the “night before the storm.” At the moment, there is no clear uptrend or downtrend. Risk-averse sentiment is high, and every movement in both funds and the order book is simply waiting for the final verdict from the FOMC Federal Reserve policy meeting on July 28-29. The outcome of this meeting will very likely break the current deadlocked range and determine the overall direction of the crypto market in the short term—and possibly the medium term.

I. Current Market Condition: The Two Leaders Trade Sideways Together, With Upside/Downside Momentum Completely Buried
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Choppy consolidation around the $64,000 level; weakness after pullback from the highs
BTC is currently holding above the $64,000 area and trading in a slight range (Gate.io: $64,386, up 0.41%). BTC’s total market cap is stable around $1.29 trillion. Looking back at recent price action: after BTC fell from the $67,000 high, it has never managed to launch a new wave of upside. It has been consolidating below $65,000 to build up energy, with the pace of both upswings and downswings slowing down completely. In the short term, BTC is stuck in a directional-choice dilemma.
2. Ethereum (ETH): Ranging around the $1,870 zone; rebound lacks strength, weakness is clear
Compared with BTC’s relatively stronger chop, ETH is notably weaker. It is currently stabilizing weakly around $1,878. Long-term, ETH is locked in a tight $1,860–$1,880 range, repeatedly tugging back and forth. From a phase-level perspective, after ETH rebounded from a $1,570 low, its cumulative rebound has only been about 12%-14%. When it tested the resistance zone at $1,900–$1,950, it quickly fell back. Looking across the year, ETH’s year-to-date decline is still over 35%. Over a 52-week window, its trading range is as wide as $1,512.5–$4,880.5, with violent swings and an overall weak structure that has not been fully reversed.

II. Core Technical Picture: Key Highs and Lows Are Locked Precisely; Breakout Direction Is Obvious
The key trading logic in a range-bound market is to defend support and watch resistance. For BTC and ETH, the key price levels are clear and well-defined—these are the core references for identifying whether the next move will be a breakout or a breakdown.
1 BTC Key Levels and Scenario Forecast
【Three Major Strong Resistance Levels (Bullish Breakout Thresholds)】
$64,850 is the strongest near-term suppressor. This level combines two layers of pressure: the 50-day EMA index moving average line and the daily成交量加权均价 (volume-weighted average). Previously, BTC twice surged to test it, and both attempts failed—showing this is a short-term hurdle bulls find difficult to cross. $65,300 is the recent core rejection level: after price meets resistance here, it has officially entered sideways trading. And $67,253 is the medium-term strength/weakness dividing line: if the daily close holds above this level, it will completely flip the short-term range structure and open a new bullish cycle.
【Three Major Strong Support Levels (Bear Defense Floors)】
$63,760 is the recent pullback low. Short-term buy orders are clustered heavily here, able to quickly absorb selling pressure during declines. $63,125 is support from the 50-day MA moving average line and also the mid-term bull “life line.” Meanwhile, $61,237 is the ultimate defense point: if it is effectively broken, the total liquidation size of long positions accumulated across major exchanges could reach $608 million, which would very likely trigger a chain-reaction sell-off.
Short-term outlook summary: BTC is currently range-bound but relatively bullish. It is riding rebounds from prior lows to approach the previous highs, yet upside momentum is seriously insufficient—bulls have been unable to break through the key resistances for a long time. Whether $64,850 can be broken will directly determine the short-term direction.
2 ETH Key Levels and Scenario Forecast
【Multiple Resistance Layers Weigh Down Bulls; It’s Hard to Move Up】
$1,887 is the short-term pressure level at the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle track and also a pressure point for intraday minor breakout attempts. The $1,900–$1,920 zone is a core resistance area where multiple break attempts were rejected; it is difficult for price to break through effectively in the short term. Senior analyst Daan Crypto Trades clearly pointed out that $1,950 is the key level for an ETH trend reversal—only after holding above it can ETH open the upside space of $2,150–$2,350.
【Stair-Step Support to Catch Every Drop】
$1,850 is ETH’s current core psychological-and-technical dual support. Multiple pullbacks have successfully defended it, making it the short-term line where bulls and bears diverge. $1,840–$1,850 is the dense buy zone with strong absorption strength. If $1,850 is unexpectedly lost, $1,820–$1,834 will become the next line of defense, and deeper supports sit at $1,788 and $1,736.
The fatal order-book weakness: ETH’s current buy/sell ratio is only 0.55%, and the depth is skewed sharply at -24.84%. Sell orders on the books completely crush buy orders, leaving bulls with very limited ability to absorb. On the 4-hour chart, bearish MACD momentum has not fully exhausted, and RSI is in a neutral-to-weak range. Even if a short-term bullish structure appears, there is not enough volume to support an upside move. Range weakness is the current norm.

III. Double Kill by Funds + Sentiment! The Market Looks Calm, but Hidden Signals Are Lurking
Technical analysis is the surface. Funds and sentiment are the real inner engines behind market moves. Right now, the entire crypto market sentiment is depressed, and funds are staying away in a risk-off stance. This is a typical “cautious wait-and-see” pattern.
1. Market Sentiment: Everyone Is Afraid; Bottom-Fishing Sentiment Is Weak
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is only 27, firmly trapped in the standard “Fear” zone. Retail traders are watching from the sidelines, and no one is proactively chasing gains. The market’s average RSI is 46.42, sitting in a neutral-to-weak position—there are neither oversold bottom-fishing signals nor overbought top-escape signals. The whole market is stuck in a deadlock. Even if the altcoin season index reaches 55 and some smaller coins modestly outperform major coins, it has not turned into a full-blown bull market. The overall “making money” effect is extremely poor.
2. Fund Flow: Persistent Net Outflows; Bulls Have No Premium
Across all exchanges over the past 24 hours, total net outflows are $232 million. ETH alone saw net outflows of $11.45 million. A large amount of short-term profit-taking left the market. Meanwhile, the willingness to add leverage long positions is low. At the same time, BTC’s funding rate stays at an absolutely neutral 0.0000%. ETH’s funding rate is only 0.0041%. On some derivatives platforms, negative funding rates have even appeared—meaning there is no bullish premium in the market. No funds dare to position for a long-side rally early.
3. Hidden Reversal Signals: Institutions Quietly Bottom-Fishing—Is a Long-Term Bottom Near?
While retail traders panic and exit, top-tier institutions are quietly positioning! Fidelity, a global asset-management giant, shows in its latest report that the supply of Bitcoin not moved for over 155 days has reached 15 million BTC, a historical high. This data is highly reference-worthy; the same indicator has previously matched bear-market bottom on-chain signals with high precision multiple times. BTC has already been cut roughly in half from its historical peak of $126k in December 2025, and the remaining downside room has shrunk significantly. Phase-level bottom characteristics are becoming more evident.
Meanwhile, on-chain data on the ETH chain is also sending positives: the entire network of ETH validators exiting the queue directly hit zero—stakers don’t need to line up to exit, which proves that long-term holders are confident in their positions. Current total ETH staked across the network has broken 40.2 million, representing 33% of the circulating supply. Institutions continue to add to staking, gradually strengthening the foundation of long-term value at the bottom. Also, ETH’s current price is below its realized price, meaning most ETH-holding accounts are underwater. Institutions are continuously accumulating below $1,850, and the left-side bottom-fishing signal is clear.

IV. Major Macro Catalysts Landing! The FOMC Meeting Might Ignite a Super Trade
The biggest uncertainty in this round of market consolidation—the only point that can break the deadlock—is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC policy meeting on July 28-29. No other event matters as much! Previously, the Fed held rates unchanged at the June meeting, but recently inflation concerns have intensified, and oil prices have continued rising due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts. The expectation of rate hikes for the year has warmed up again, sharply increasing uncertainty in the market. Data shows that the implied probability of a rate hike in July has jumped from 12.8% one week ago to 37.9%, and the probability of at least one rate hike this year has exceeded 70%.
Based on market expectations, three potential scenario paths for this meeting are already clear:
✅ Hawkish guidance (higher probability): Keep room for further rate hikes; risk assets under pressure. ETH is likely to break through the $1,820 support, with downside targets looking toward $1,750–$1,730. BTC would likely fall in sync, testing support around the $63,000 area.
✅ Neutral guidance (medium probability): Keep rates unchanged and adopt cautious messaging; the market continues to range. ETH remains locked in a $1,820–$1,914 range, while BTC continues to range between $63,000–$65,000.
✅ Dovish guidance (lower probability): Release signals of potential rate cuts later in the year; risk sentiment improves. ETH rebounds and breaks above $1,950 resistance, targeting above $1,960. BTC follows through, pushing higher to test the $64,850–$65,300 resistance zone.
In addition, two major external bearish factors continue to weigh on the market: the Nasdaq index has broken below the key $25,000 support and has closed down for three consecutive days. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.71%, the highest year-to-date level. Funds continue to flee technology growth stocks. As ETH and BTC are technology-risk assets, they face persistent near-term pressure.

V. Market Summary + Core Strategy for the Next Phase
Overall, the crypto market is currently in a critical window of extreme low volume and a key period of choosing direction. What looks like calm on the surface is actually a tug-of-war with hidden undercurrents.
Short-term core status: BTC consolidates and builds energy supported by the $63,100–$63,700 range, while resistance at $64,850 remains hard to break. ETH holds its $1,850 core lifeline tightly; above, the $1,900–$1,950 resistance is stacked and bears down. Bulls lack volume to push, and price action leans weak. Market sentiment is fearful and funds have small outflows, but institutions have solid confidence in long-term holdings and clear signs of accumulation at the bottom.
The only core variable ahead: the result of the FOMC Federal Reserve meeting! Before the meeting lands, the market will most likely continue narrow-range consolidation with no clear trend setup. After the meeting lands, it will directly break the current consolidation structure and start the next trend cycle. A breakout upward brings short-term rebound and repair; a breakdown downward completes the final wave of panic selling and fully solidifies the bottom.

All analysis in this article is compiled based on publicly available market data and is only for market replay and sharing ideas. It does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC ‌