A brief analysis of BTC short-term trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC One, Dow Theory
Major trend (1-hour timeframe): The main downtrend that started from the historical high of 82,814 on May 6 is still ongoing. The price moved from 82,814 to a secondary peak of 73,975 on June 1, then to a rebound peak of 67,247 on June 15, and kept falling all the way to the low of 57,721 on July 1, for a total drop of 25,093. After bottoming on July 1, multiple rounds of rebounds followed; on July 21 the highest touched 66,916. On July 22-24, however, a devastating pullback occurred: the price plunged from 66,916 to the low of 63,670 on July 24, a retracement of 3,246, fully giving back all gains from July 20-21 and setting a new low. Notably, in the early session on July 24 the price rebounded to 65,537, but it was quickly slammed back by the bears, forming a typical “bull trap.” Current price is 64,037 near the July 20 low of 63,703; the reversal signals for the major trend have been completely invalidated, and the downtrend structure remains.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the high at 66,916 on July 21 at 14:00, the short-term downtrend has been very clear. Short-term highs stepped down from 66,916 (7-21 14:00) → 66,280 (7-23 00:00) → 65,450 (7-23 12:00) → 65,537 (7-24 06:00, bull trap) → 64,890 (7-24 18:00), showing a bearish characteristic of “lower highs persisting.” Short-term lows stepped down from 65,107 (7-21 00:00) → 64,601 (7-23 08:00) → 63,670 (7-24 14:00), showing a weak characteristic of “lower lows persisting.” On July 24 at 14:00, the price rebounded from 63,670 to 64,037, only a 367 rebound—very weak.
Dow conclusion: The major trend is still declining. The rebound on July 20-21 was completely negated by the selloff on July 22-24. The “bull trap” on July 24 (rebounded to 65,537 then crashed) further confirms bear control. The short-term trend has entered a phase of strong decline. 63,500-64,000 is the key short-term support, while 64,500-65,000 is the key short-term resistance. If 63,500 breaks, it opens downside room toward 62,000-61,000.
Two, Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Top fractals: A strong top fractal formed at 66,916 on July 21 at 14:00. A new top fractal formed at 65,537 on July 24 at 06:00 (bull trap), followed by a crash to 63,670, showing the bears’ strength is extremely strong. Another new top fractal formed at 64,890 on July 24 at 18:00, far lower than the prior top—bear dominance confirmed.
Bottom fractals: A bottom fractal formed at 64,601 on July 23 at 08:00, but it was later broken. A new bottom fractal formed at 63,670 on July 24 at 14:00, lower than the previous bottom at 64,601. The downward-shift structure of bottom fractals is confirmed, indicating extremely weak long-side follow-through.
Bi (strokes) and segments:
From the 62,462 bottom fractal to the 66,916 top fractal (July 21), it formed an upward stroke with a rise of about 4,454, very strong.
From the 66,916 top fractal to the 63,670 bottom fractal (July 24), it formed a downward stroke with a drop of about 3,246, very strong, completely engulfing most of the gains from the upward stroke.
From the 63,670 bottom fractal to the 65,537 top fractal (July 24), it formed an upward stroke with a rise of about 1,867, but it was quickly slammed back, forming a “bull trap stroke.”
From the 65,537 top fractal to 64,037 (July 25 23:00), it formed a downward stroke (in progress), and the decline has already reached 1,500, showing strong momentum.
Central area (pivot range):
The original falling central area 62,500-64,000 has been retested; current price 64,037 is near the upper edge of that central area, facing severe pressure.
The original rising central areas 65,000-66,000 and 66,000-66,900 have both been broken downward and have become strong resistance overhead.
A new descending central area is being built in the 63,500-65,000 range. On July 22-25, the K-lines in that range are densely interwoven. Current price 64,037 is slightly below the midline inside the central area.
Below, a strong support central area lies in 62,000-63,500.
Chan conclusion: The downward stroke has very strong force (-3,246), and the “bull trap stroke” has been completely negated—bear control is total. The original rising central areas have all been broken downward. The new descending central area is being formed in 63,500-65,000. For the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal support can form around 63,500-64,000; if it directly breaks below 63,500, the selloff accelerates with targets 62,000-61,000.
Three, Elliott Wave Theory
Based on 1-hour swing structure:
A larger-degree five-wave decline (still ongoing):
1 wave: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), magnitude about -4,300
2 wave: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), magnitude about +2,551
3 wave: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), magnitude about -21,956 (impulse wave downward)
4 wave: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), magnitude about +8,152
5 wave (ongoing): 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1) → 66,916 (July 21, rebound) → 63,670 (July 24, continuing lower)
A new upswing (completely failed):
1 wave (new): 61,750 → 65,510 (July 15), magnitude +3,760
2 wave (correction): 65,510 → 62,462 (July 17), magnitude -3,048
3 wave (failed): 62,462 → 66,916 (July 21), magnitude +4,454 → but it then crashed to 63,670, fully invalidating wave 3
Current: It may be in the continuation phase of the larger-degree 5-wave decline, or it is unfolding a new A-wave decline
Wave conclusion: The rebound on July 20-21 has been completely negated by the crash on July 22-24. The “bull trap” on July 24 (rebound to 65,537) further confirms the downside structure. Currently, it may be in the continuation phase of the larger-degree 5-wave decline. If it breaks below 63,500, the decline continuation is confirmed with targets 62,000-61,000; if it can find support in 63,500-64,000 and break above 65,000, a new rebound structure may unfold.
Four, Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the crash phase on July 1, there was a very clear “volume expansion” feature. On July 14-15, there was a breakout with increased volume, with positive volume-price alignment. On July 16-17, heavy volume coincided with a crash. On July 20, there was a dramatic V-shaped reversal: when the morning selloff dropped to 63,703, trading volume surged sharply (2.56B+999M+821M); during the afternoon V-shaped reversal, the volume was even more astonishing (15:00 super high-volume bullish candle at 2.74B). On July 21, the high-volume rally continued (14:00 high-volume bullish candle at 1.56B). From July 22-24, significant pullbacks occurred; volume kept expanding, and multiple high-volume bearish candles appeared during the drop from 66,916 to 63,670. Particularly noteworthy: when the rebound on July 24 reached 65,537, volume expanded (around 1.08B), but during the subsequent crash, volume became even more extreme (14:00 high-volume bearish candle around 1.42B), forming an extreme bearish combination of “bigger selloff after a high-volume rebound.” On July 25, the market ranged in 63,670-64,200 with declining volume, showing both sides temporarily stand aside. Overall, the volume-price combination shows: “crash on peak volume + V-shaped reversal with even higher volume + continuation of rallies with expanding volume + crash continuing with expanding volume + bull trap with expanding volume + consolidation with shrinking volume.”
Key volume-price levels:
At 15:00 on July 20, a super high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume in the 2.74B range), confirming the rebound initiation.
At 14:00 on July 21, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume in the 1.56B range), confirming the rebound continuation.
At 06:00 on July 24, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume in the 1.08B range); the rebound to 65,537 formed a bull trap.
At 14:00 on July 24, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume in the 1.42B range); it crashed from 65,200 to 63,670—panic selling poured out, and the bull trap was pierced.
On July 25, volume clearly decreased; price consolidated in the 63,670-64,200 range, showing both sides temporarily paused.
Recent volume-price status: On July 25, the whole day saw a volume contraction and tight consolidation, with price ranging narrowly between 63,670-64,200—weak consolidation after the crash.
Volume-price conclusion: On July 24, “higher volume rebound followed by even more heavy-volume selling” formed a typical bull trap. The bearish overhead supply is extremely heavy. On July 25, the market consolidated on lower volume, indicating the market is temporarily watching. Key thing to observe: if the rebound to 64,500-65,000 is rejected on increasing volume, the decline may continue; if it breaks down below 63,500 on rising volume, the selloff accelerates.
Five, Order Flow
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): In the recent 5 days (July 21-25), the volume control point (POC) is at 64,089. Current price at 64,037 is about 52 below the POC, indicating a mild discount state (Below Value).
Current location analysis: Price 64,037 is slightly below the POC 64,089, i.e., below the value area. The Value Area is 63,871-65,767; current price is near the lower edge of the Value Area (above 63,871), indicating short-term sellers have the upper hand. The lower edge of the Value Area at 63,871 is a short-term support, and 65,767 is a short-term strong resistance.
High-Volume Nodes (HVN):
65,000-65,500: Overhead resistance HVN (July 20-24 dense trading zone; current strong resistance area—bull trap zone)
64,000-64,500: Core support/resistance HVN (near POC; current battle zone between bulls and bears)
63,500-64,000: Below support HVN (dense trading zone on July 24-25)
62,000-63,000: Extreme support HVN (dense trading zone on July 16-17)
Delta analysis: During the rally on July 20-21, Delta stayed strongly positive continuously (around +5 billion range). During the pullbacks on July 22-24, Delta quickly turned negative and remained deeply negative (around -4 billion range). When the price rebounded to 65,537 on July 24, Delta briefly turned positive but the magnitude was limited (+1.5 billion range); then during the subsequent crash, Delta again turned deeply negative (-3.5 billion range), confirming the bull trap. During the July 25 consolidation, Delta fluctuated near the zero axis, showing temporary balance between bulls and bears. Current Delta MA12 is slightly negative (-2.56B), indicating seller strength has a slight advantage.
Order flow conclusion: Price is slightly below the POC at 64,089, with short-term sellers slightly ahead. Overhead, 64,500 and 65,000 are two key HVN resistance zones (bull trap areas). Below, 63,500 and 63,000 are two key HVN support zones. If Delta stays positive continuously and volume rises during a rebound in 63,500-64,000, it may halt the drop in the short term; if Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 63,500, the selloff accelerates.
Six, Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistances: 82,814 (swing high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,247 (June 15 rebound high), 66,916 (July 21 high), 65,537 (July 24 bull trap high)
Key resistances: 65,000 (psychological level + lower edge of bull trap zone), 64,500 (psychological level + upper edge of POC)
Key supports: 63,500 (July 24 low zone + bull/bear watershed), 63,000 (extreme support), 62,462 (July 17 low), 61,750 (July 13 low)
K-line formations:
On July 20 at 15:00, a super large bullish candle appeared (body about +1,166), forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
On July 21 at 14:00, a large bullish candle appeared, confirming the breakout of 66,500.
On July 22-23, consecutive large bearish candles appeared, forming the “bearish engulfing” and “decapitation knife” patterns.
On July 24 at 06:00, a medium bullish candle appeared, rebounding to 65,537 and forming a “bull trap.”
On July 24 at 14:00, a large bearish candle appeared (body about -1,530), crashing from 65,200 to 63,670 and forming the “dark cloud cover” pattern; the bull trap was pierced.
On July 25, multiple small bearish and small bullish candles formed a narrow consolidation in the 63,670-64,200 range, forming a “consolidation platform.”
Trend structure:
Short term: A descending channel based on the decline since July 21 at 66,916 is forming. The upper rail resistance is around 65,000, and the lower rail support is around 63,000. The July 24 “bull trap” touched the upper rail and was quickly rejected, confirming that the descending channel is valid.
Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6 at 82,814 is still valid. The rebound on July 20-21 failed to break through that trend line effectively, and price has returned below the trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in a phase of strong selling. The July 24 “bull trap” further confirms that bears are fully in control. 63,500-64,000 is the short-term battle zone: if it holds, the short-term selloff may pause and a rebound could form; if it breaks below 63,500, the decline accelerates, with targets in the 62,000-61,000 range.
Comprehensive outlook
Dow Theory confirms the major trend is still downward; the rebound on July 20-21 was completely negated by the crash on July 22-24; and the “bull trap” on July 24 further confirms bear dominance. Chan Theory shows the downward stroke has extremely strong force (-3,246) and the “bull trap stroke” is completely invalidated; bears are fully dominant. The new descending central area is being built in 63,500-65,000. Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the new upswing has completely failed; currently it may be in the continuation phase of a larger-degree 5-wave decline. Volume-Price Analysis shows an extreme bearish setup of “more volume rebound followed by even more heavy selling,” with clear bull trap characteristics. Order flow shows POC at 64,089, price is at a slight discount, Delta MA12 is slightly negative, and sellers are slightly ahead. Price action shows a bearish pattern of “bull trap + dark cloud cover,” with bears fully leading in the short term.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bearish scenario (higher probability): If the rebound reaches around 64,500-65,000 and forms a top fractal with heavy-volume selling, confirming that 65,000 resistance is effective (bull trap zone), then consider a short trade with targets 63,500 → 63,000 → 62,000 and a stop loss at 65,300. With bears currently dominant, shorting on rebounds is the main strategy.
Bullish scenario (lower probability): If price near 63,500-64,000 shows shrinking volume stop of the fall + a bottom fractal + Delta turning positive, you could try a long trade with targets 64,500 → 65,000 → 65,500 and a stop loss at 63,200. You need to wait for a clear stop-loss/turnaround signal.
Current status: 64,037 is in weak consolidation after the crash, and bears dominate in the short term. It’s recommended that after any rebound to 64,500-65,000 gets rejected, shorting is the primary approach; or wait for a clear turnaround/stop-loss signal before considering a long.