A Brief Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend Using Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action (Strategy Suggestions)

$BTC ‌#BTC Comprehensive Judgment
Dow Theory confirms the main trend is still in decline. The rebound from July 20–21 was completely negated by the sharp selloff from July 22–24. The “long trap” on July 24 further confirms bearish control.

Chan Theory shows extremely strong downside strokes (-3,246), and the “long trap stroke” has been completely invalidated. Bears are fully in control, and the new downward consolidation center is being formed at 63,500–65,000.

Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the new round of upward impulse has completely failed, and the market may currently be in the continuation phase of a large-degree 5-wave decline.

The volume-price relationship shows an extreme bearish combination of “a high-volume rebound followed by even more selloff,” with clear long-trap characteristics.

Order flow shows POC at 64,089; price is in a slight discount state. Delta MA12 is mildly negative, indicating the sellers have a slight advantage.

Price action indicates a bearish pattern of “long trap + dark clouds covering the top,” with short-term bears fully dominating.

Short-Term Strategy Suggestions:

Bearish scenario (high probability): If a rebound to around 64,500–65,000 forms a top fractal and is accompanied by selloff on expanding volume, and once 65,000 resistance is confirmed as effective (the long-trap zone), you can short with targets 63,500 → 63,000 → 62,000, and a stop-loss at 65,300. Since bears are currently dominant, shorting into rebounds is the main strategy.

Bullish scenario (low probability): If price near 63,500–64,000 contracts volume to stop falling + forms a bottom fractal + Delta turns positive, you can try a long with targets 64,500 → 65,000 → 65,500, and a stop-loss at 63,200. Wait for a clear stop-falling signal.

Current Status: 64,037 is in a weak consolidation zone after the crash, with short-term bears fully dominant. It is suggested to short quickly after a rebound into 64,500–65,000 meets resistance, or wait for a clear stop-falling signal before considering a long.