## Gold Morning News 🪨 7/26 Sunday

**XAU $4,047.90（+0.03%）**｜COMEX closed at $4,067.60 on Friday（**week-on-week +1.37%**，ending two weeks of consecutive declines, the biggest weekly gain since May 8）
24h range: $4,021 - $4,082（weekend liquidity is low, tight consolidation）
ATH $5,405（Jan）, current pullback -24.5%

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**Major Developments**
- 🟡 **Trump pauses strikes on Iran!** After 13 consecutive nights of attacks, he stopped for the first time (Friday night). Axios reports that Trump is assessing whether Iran is willing to negotiate. An Iranian health ministry official also noted that "Iran had a calm night"
- 🟡 But Trump warned: **"If we don't get 100% of what we want, we will absolutely resume a full-scale war"**, "lock and loaded" can be restarted at any time
- 🔴 The Houthis attack Saudi Aramco facilities (Jizan refinery + Yanbu), while Saudi and Yemen retaliate against each other—conflict is spreading to the second Red Sea shipping corridor
- 🔴 Zelensky discloses: **Russian satellite intelligence is providing target data for Iran’s Middle East strike operations**
- Iran accuses the United States of opening a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz bypassing Iran, violating the interim peace agreement

**Macro**
- Strong US employment data, **market pricing for a September rate hike rises to 82%**
- DXY holds steady at 101, with US Treasury yields running at high levels
- Countdown to the FOMC on 7/28-29: markets widely expect no change in July

**Domestic Gold Prices**: AU9999 ~886.61 yuan/gram, brand gold jewelry 1226-1232 yuan/gram, buyback ~880 yuan/gram, bank gold bars 898-903 yuan/gram

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**Qualitative Takeaway: Geopolitical safe-haven premium starts to ease, with positions locked in before the FOMC**

The most critical change this week is **Trump pausing airstrikes**—this is not a ceasefire, but it sends a negotiation signal. Gold price fell from the $4,100 high on Friday to the $4,047 area, partly reflecting the unwinding of the geopolitical premium.

But risks are far from gone:
1. Trump’s threat of a "full-scale war" remains—pausing ≠ ending
2. Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco + opening a second front in the Red Sea— even if US-Iran reach a ceasefire, energy supply risks still point upward
3. **September rate-hike probability surges from 52.6% last week to 82%**—strong employment data + a hawkish tone ahead of the FOMC = high Treasury yields = an increasingly thick ceiling above gold prices

**COMEX weekly**: after two straight weeks of declines, this week rebounded +1.37%, but it is still range-bound and consolidating within $4,000-$4,100, with no breakout

**Support**: $4,020 → $4,000 (the mid-term life line for bulls and bears) → $3,986 (the 7/16 low)
**Resistance**: $4,080 → $4,120 → $4,150

**Strategy**: Weekend liquidity is poor, so there’s no meaningful action. **Start watching two things next Monday**: ① whether Trump resumes airstrikes (if resumed, gold could push again toward $4,100+); ② the 7/29 FOMC decision—an 82% probability of a September hike is a substantial negative for gold. **$4,000 is the bulls-and-bears life line; if it breaks, look for $3,950-3,986. If it holds, the $4,000-4,100 range continues to grind**

**Key Calendar Next Week**:
- Monday to Wednesday: watch whether US-Iran resume military actions
- **7/28-29 FOMC policy meeting** (this week’s core event)
- Watch for talks between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu