2026.7.25 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis

2026.7.25 Daily Crypto Market News Analysis 22:02 Macro and market main-line conclusions First, let’s say this: what truly changes market judgment is the combination of “the energy shock has not been resolved and institutional funds have been withdrawing consecutively,” not a short-term pump of some altcoin over the weekend. BTC still has spot-side absorption, but external interest-rate expectations and ETF funds both weakened at the same time. What we have now looks more like defense near the highs, not the start of a new full risk-on cycle. Reuters’ market analysis shows that the Middle East conflict has pushed oil back above around $100, while US Treasury yields are rising. Interest-rate futures have already priced in about two 25-basis-point rate hikes within the year. On Friday, oil prices fell back from their highs, but US tech stocks remained under pressure, suggesting the market is not treating the energy shock as a one-off noise. I think the impact on crypto first shows up as valuation discounts: the longer oil prices fail to cool, the harder inflation and interest-rate expectations are to cool down, and high-volatility assets need stronger incremental inflows to maintain prices. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so price rebounds can’t replace macro improvement.

In terms of fund flows and BTC/ETH-related news, Farside’s final data shows that on July 24, US spot BTC ETFs had net outflows of $240.1 million, continuing withdrawals for a second day after net outflows of $225.1 million the day before; the two days combined totaled $465.2 million net outflows. ETH ETFs also switched from net inflows of $26.3 million the previous day to net outflows of $70.7 million. More importantly, the BTC outflows that day were mainly concentrated in two top products, indicating this is not technical noise from small funds. My view is that the institutional “bottom base” hasn’t disappeared, but the assumption that “buy the dip” holds has been weakened. ETH also hasn’t taken over the main funding line, and altcoins are even more lacking the risk-budget foundation needed for expansion.

For member handling: first treat ETF flow as a confirmation indicator rather than a reason to bottom-fish. Next week, if BTC ETFs return to net inflows and ETH/BTC both stop falling together, then the fund pullback may be only a two-day disturbance. If both types of ETFs continue to flow out at the same time, even if crypto prices trade sideways, it should be understood as liquidity thinning, and positions and leverage should be kept even more restrained. On the regulatory side, stablecoin, and industry news, there is no new policy that has landed in a way sufficient to reverse short-term pricing.

In the current US payment stablecoin framework, qualified issuers, compliant reserves, redemption policies, and monthly attestation are still emphasized. For the industry’s medium-term impact, this means pushing demand further toward top stablecoins with transparent reserves and clear redemptions, rather than giving all stablecoins a valuation boost. DeFiLlama’s recent data also shows that stablecoin supply hasn’t seen any sudden expansion large enough to offset ETF outflows, so the claim that “off-exchange funds are rushing in massively” currently lacks evidence on the funding side.

On the safety front, today I did not find any new incident that was jointly confirmed by project announcements, security institutions, and on-chain evidence, and that is sufficient to change the market-wide view. The cross-chain bridge risk mentioned yesterday is still valid: high yields cannot cover tail losses from permission issues, verification logic, and liquidity interruptions. For ordinary participants, at this stage prioritizing checks on asset custody and protocol permissions matters more than chasing weekend narratives.

If there are weekend breaking rumors without official announcements or on-chain data verification, they won’t be included in trading judgment and won’t be used as a reason to chase higher prices.

Market interpretation
BTC around $64.2k, where $64k is the first line of short-term defense. Only when it reclaims $65k~$66k and ETFs return flows can we say absorption has recovered. If it breaks below $63.5k, be wary of weekend thin-liquidity amplifying deleveraging. ETH around $1,860: it has already fallen back below $1,900. Only by reclaiming $1,900 and pushing ETH/BTC stronger can altcoin risk appetite have a basis to repair. The current structure remains BTC relatively dominant, with ETH and altcoins more defensive.

What we looked back on yesterday and what to track tomorrow
What we looked back on yesterday needs to continue lowering risk appetite. Previously we thought ETH still had some localized absorption, but the July 24 ETH ETF has turned into net outflows of $70.7 million. The BTC ETF is also withdrawing for a second consecutive day. Although oil prices have pulled back, the upward pressure on interest rates hasn’t been eased. Therefore, the direction of “macro limits the ceiling, top assets first” remains unchanged, and the funding side is weaker than yesterday.

Tomorrow’s first focus: whether the oil-price pullback can continue. Second: whether the rate-hike pricing before the Fed meeting next week cools down. Third: whether BTC can hold $63.5k~$64k over the weekend to avoid thin liquidity triggering a chain of liquidations; and third again: whether on the next trading day BTC and ETH ETFs can stop outflows in sync. Only when macro, funding, and price improve at least two of those areas is it suitable to raise risk appetite.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Specific positions, order prices, take-profit and stop-loss, and PDF post-mortems follow the daily 8:00 AM subscription newsletter and the member archive files. For how to view the archive files, please check the pinned instructions.

Risk warning: The above content is only a梳理 of the news flow and a scenario projection of the market, and does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset volatility is extremely high—watch your position sizing and stop-losses.

2026 crypto market #比特币投资 #以太坊 #ETF fund