The market action in the earlier part gives people the impression that it’s easy to get carried away. The price keeps tugging back and forth around 0.05794, and occasionally it deliberately spikes upward, as if it’s ready to keep ramping up. I didn’t rush to chase longs; instead, I focused on how fast the price falls after each push higher. The more I watched, the more it felt like there were people offloading at the high level.

After I truly opened the short, the most torturous part wasn’t the drop—it was those rebound moves in between. Watching the floating PnL of the short position fluctuate back and forth really nearly broke my mindset. Fortunately, I wasn’t shaken out by the short-term noise. The price eventually moved to 0.04227, and this trade records +533.19%. The short’s timing finally landed.

Many retail traders want to jump in only after the first big bearish candle appears, but by then it’s often already too late. My thinking has always been simple: wait for the bid/holding to weaken, then wait for the sell pressure to spread on its own. Don’t catch falling knives, and don’t chase just to avoid missing out.

This market made me even more certain of one point: weakness isn’t determined by a single bearish candle—it’s determined by repeated rebounds that no one is willing to take. After you’ve identified the right direction, whether you can hold onto it is what makes this trade truly valuable.

$BTC $ETH