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Haitong Securities: US-Iran tensions escalate again; dual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up oil prices

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A Huatai Securities research report said that in mid-July, the situation between the US and Iran escalated again. Iran announced it would shut the Strait of Hormuz again, and the US also announced the resumption of its maritime blockade of Iran, causing oil prices to rebound. On July 17, WTI and Brent futures settled at $82.5 per barrel and $88.1 per barrel, up 18.7% and 20.8% from the end of June. Huatai Securities believes that after the strait experienced nearly a month of temporary reopening, the severe shortage in crude oil supply has been temporarily alleviated. However, uncertainty remains due to the repeated fluctuations in the geopolitical situation. As the third quarter enters the global oil demand peak season, together with future global inventory restocking, crude oil prices will still have support over the next one to two years. It maintained its forecasts for the 2026–2027 Brent crude futures average price at $82 per barrel and $70 per barrel. In the medium to long term, Huatai Securities said that the acceleration of the global oil consumption turning point is forming. The UAE’s exit from OPEC will accelerate the breakdown of the monopolized crude oil supply structure, and production countries’ marginal costs will support a bottom-range central price level around $60 per barrel. (People’s Finance News)
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